Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a>'s strange journey with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a> continues. In April 2021, GULF made a surprising VTO for INTUCH. This past July, the two companies announced an amalgamation. </li>
<li>The merger was not fair to INTUCH shareholders, with an estimated earnings value destruction of ~26.5% (for FY24E). But that didn't stop shareholders overwhelmingly approving the 3rd October EGM resolutions.</li>
<li>What now? The next step  is the low-balled VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>. Then amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.</li>
</ul>



Intouch (INTUCH TB)'s strange journey with Gulf Energy (GULF TB) continues. In April 2021, GULF made a surprising VTO for INTUCH. This past July, the two companies announced an amalgamation. 
The merger was not fair to INTUCH shareholders, with an estimated earnings value destruction of ~26.5% (for FY24E). But that didn't stop shareholders overwhelmingly approving the 3rd October EGM resolutions.
What now? The next step  is the low-balled VTOs for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom (THCOM TB). Then amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this edition, we look at OVO and Superbank in Indonesia and how they will coexist, and SCG Packaging as it increases its Indonesia exposure through Fajar Surya.</li>
<li>We also look at the implications of the recent gig worker protests in Indonesia and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia</a>'s increasing focus on data centres and a strategic investor there.</li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


In this edition, we look at OVO and Superbank in Indonesia and how they will coexist, and SCG Packaging as it increases its Indonesia exposure through Fajar Surya.
We also look at the implications of the recent gig worker protests in Indonesia and Telekomunikasi Indonesia's increasing focus on data centres and a strategic investor there.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - OVO & Superbank, SCG Packaging in Indonesia, Gig Revolt, and Data Centres

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dci-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33592:1" rel="noopener">DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Malaysian Politics and the Indonesian economy together with CrossASEAN Ground Zero which looks at the changing dynamics of commerce, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ), DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ), Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ), Thai Beverage (THBEV SP), and Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB).
There were also macro insights on Malaysian Politics and the Indonesian economy together with CrossASEAN Ground Zero which looks at the changing dynamics of commerce, Vinfast (VFS US), and Grab.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ciputra Development, Arwana's Catalyst, and Thai Beverage.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>In 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> made an offer to acquire all <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> shares at THB65/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> did not tender their then 21% stake.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH)</a> are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The merger will result in an inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.</li>
</ul>


In 2021, Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) made an offer to acquire all Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) shares at THB65/share. Singtel (ST SP) did not tender their then 21% stake.
Now Gulf Energy Development (GULF) and Intouch Holdings (INTUCH) are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).
The merger will result in an inclusion to the SET 50 Index in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> announced restructuring transactions to merge into NewCo and VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>. </li>
<li>Shareholders will receive 1.69335 NewCo shares per Intouch share (excluding shares held by Gulf) and 1.02974 NewCo shares per Gulf share.</li>
<li>The key conditions are shareholder approvals, completion of VTOs and purchase of dissenting shares. The transaction is long-dated and expected to be completed in 2Q25.</li>
</ul>



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) and Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) announced restructuring transactions to merge into NewCo and VTOs for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB). 
Shareholders will receive 1.69335 NewCo shares per Intouch share (excluding shares held by Gulf) and 1.02974 NewCo shares per Gulf share.
The key conditions are shareholder approvals, completion of VTOs and purchase of dissenting shares. The transaction is long-dated and expected to be completed in 2Q25.


Gulf (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) Merger and ADVANC/THCOM VTOs

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

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Singtel (ST SP)

Intouch? Or Perhaps "Out Of" Touch

INTUCH looks expensive here. But I've called INTUCH wrong after GULF entered the scene. I'd still avoid INTUCH. Both AIS and Thaicom have put...

David Blennerhassett

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - OVO & Superbank, SCG Packaging in Indonesia, Gig Revolt, and Data Centres

In this edition, we look at OVO and Superbank in Indonesia and how they will coexist, and SCG Packaging as it increases its Indonesia exposure...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ciputra Development, Arwana's Catalyst, and Thai Beverage.

The past week saw insights on Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ), DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ), Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ), Thai Beverage (THBEV SP), and...

Angus Mackintosh

GULF/INTUCH Merger & ADVANC/THCOM VTO's

GULF and INTUCH are looking to merge with the merger ratio very close to current levels. Shareholders are unlikely to tender into the ADVANC and...

Brian Freitas

Gulf (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) Merger and ADVANC/THCOM VTOs

The vote risk is minimal. With Advanced Info and Thaicom trading above the VTO prices, the swap ratio trade seems the best way to play the merger...

Arun George

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