Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly (AFR), <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a></strong> is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. </li>
<li>SingTel quickly <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20Announcement%2020240313.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=791796" target="_blank" rel="noopener">countered</a> there is no impending deal; and "<em>Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term</em>."</li>
<li>Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and "Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term."
Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.


Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

<ul>
<li>Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a></strong> vs. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Reportedly, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a></strong> is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. </li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a></strong> enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?</li>
</ul>


Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) vs. Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Reportedly, Singtel (ST SP) is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. 

Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), RHB Invest

RHB Invest

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SingTel (SGX:Z74)'s FY23 results missed on AUD weakness, albeit. with the highest dividend payout since FY19.</li><li>With FY23 return on invested capital (ROIC) rising to 8.3% (FY22: 7.3%), SingTel's management has set a new low double-digit target in the medium term.</li><li>4QFY23 core earnings of S$489m (-12.5% q-o-q, +4.4% y-o-y) brought SingTel's FY23 (Apr 2022 to Mar 2023) core earnings to S$2.05bn (+7% y-o-y), at 90% of our forecast (consensus: 93%) with the key deviation coming from the weaker AUD (-6% year-to-date).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SingTel (SGX:Z74)'s FY23 results missed on AUD weakness, albeit. with the highest dividend payout since FY19.With FY23 return on invested capital (ROIC) rising to 8.3% (FY22: 7.3%), SingTel's management has set a new low double-digit target in the medium term.4QFY23 core earnings of S$489m (-12.5% q-o-q, +4.4% y-o-y) brought SingTel's FY23 (Apr 2022 to Mar 2023) core earnings to S$2.05bn (+7% y-o-y), at 90% of our forecast (consensus: 93%) with the key deviation coming from the weaker AUD (-6% year-to-date).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<div>
<p><em><strong>This week in StubWorld ...</strong></em></p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the GFC. </p>
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</div>
<p>Preceding my comments on SingTel are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p></p>
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This week in StubWorld ...


Singtel (ST SP)'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the GFC. 


Preceding my comments on SingTel are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.





SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake Digital Core Reit Management bought back 210,000 units of Digital Core Reit.</li><li>On Apr 12, Plato Capital chairman and non-executive non-independent director Lim Kian Onn acquired 283,000 shares at an average price of S$2.21 per share.</li></ul>

Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake Digital Core Reit Management bought back 210,000 units of Digital Core Reit.On Apr 12, Plato Capital chairman and non-executive non-independent director Lim Kian Onn acquired 283,000 shares at an average price of S$2.21 per share.

Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

Singtel (ST SP)

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The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

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SingTel - ROIC Trending Up; Keep BUY

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RHB Invest

StubWorld: SingTel Plumbs Multi-Year Low

Singtel (ST SP)'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the global financial crisis.

David Blennerhassett

Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake

Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake Digital Core Reit Management bought back 210,000 units of Digital Core Reit. On Apr 12, Plato...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)