Julie Lee

Equity Bottom-Up

The street has been focusing on the leading e-commerce players in 2020 due to surge in demand since the pandemic. E-commerce companies have spent huge efforts especially on online grocery shopping  due to its importance for customers, rapid growth on under-penetration, and high frequency of visits.  Strong growth of e-commerce has been well highlighted by the street, while  positive impact on FMCG has been less appreciated. FMCG companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-cheiljedang-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1970:1" rel="noopener">CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)</a> will continue to benefit from reduced sales and marketing costs and can increase customer reach in other countries along with rising online grocery penetration.  We will assess if Korean F&amp;B companies can repeat the success story of Korean cosmetic companies had shown in 2014 and 2015 supported by rising e-commerce in China.

The street has been focusing on the leading e-commerce players in 2020 due to surge in demand since the pandemic. E-commerce companies have spent huge efforts especially on online grocery shopping  due to its importance for customers, rapid growth on under-penetration, and high frequency of visits.  Strong growth of e-commerce has been well highlighted by the street, while  positive impact on FMCG has been less appreciated. FMCG companies such as CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS) will continue to benefit from reduced sales and marketing costs and can increase customer reach in other countries along with rising online grocery penetration.  We will assess if Korean F&amp;B companies can repeat the success story of Korean cosmetic companies had shown in 2014 and 2015 supported by rising e-commerce in China.   

Positive Impact of Increasing Global Online Grocery: CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Q3 delivered marked underperformanceOur Q3-2020 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price increase of 0.3%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. 15 stocks appear in our Q4 2020 screen, versus 21 in Q3 2020. As we highlighted in the previous three quarters, we are specifically on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics during 2020. This screen presents names which are worthy of investigation as they present with fundamentals which are at risk.

Q3 delivered marked underperformanceOur Q3-2020 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price increase of 0.3%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. 15 stocks appear in our Q4 2020 screen, versus 21 in Q3 2020. As we highlighted in the previous three quarters, we are specifically on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics during 2020. This screen presents names which are worthy of investigation as they present with fundamentals which are at risk.

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Korea exports in September increased by 7.7% YoY.  Average daily exports in September was still down 4.1% YoY but daily exports has recovered to over US$2bil, for the first time since January, and narrowed its losses compared to those in July and August (-7.1% and -4.3%). 
Exports of Auto and Semiconductor sectors had led the improvement showing solid increase MoM in September. The sectors which had shown positive YoY growth in 3Q include Computers, Healthcare, Cosmetics, Consumer Electronics, Foods, and Auto, which implies positive near term trend for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmax-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4491:1" rel="noopener">Cosmax Inc (192820 KS)</a> .  As suggested in the recent exports trend, Korean F&amp;B companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-cheiljedang-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1970:1" rel="noopener">CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)</a> may have a good opportunity to expand their overseas businesses in the long term given increasing penetration of global online grocery shopping during the pandemic. We will discuss more details in the next report.

Korea exports in September increased by 7.7% YoY.  Average daily exports in September was still down 4.1% YoY but daily exports has recovered to over US$2bil, for the first time since January, and narrowed its losses compared to those in July and August (-7.1% and -4.3%). 
Exports of Auto and Semiconductor sectors had led the improvement showing solid increase MoM in September. The sectors which had shown positive YoY growth in 3Q include Computers, Healthcare, Cosmetics, Consumer Electronics, Foods, and Auto, which implies positive near term trend for LG Electronics (066570 KS) and Cosmax Inc (192820 KS) .  As suggested in the recent exports trend, Korean F&amp;B companies such as CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS) may have a good opportunity to expand their overseas businesses in the long term given increasing penetration of global online grocery shopping during the pandemic. We will discuss more details in the next report.  

Solid Korea Export (+7.7%yoy) In Sep and Positive Implications

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<div class="content-highlight">After the market close today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-korea-express-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11557:1" rel="noopener">Cj Logistics (000120 KS)</a> announced that it plans to sell its stake in <a href="https://finance.naver.com/item/news_read.nhn?article_id=0004753670&amp;office_id=018&amp;code=000120&amp;sm=title_entity_id.basic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CJ Rokin Logistics</a> (China), which is among the top 50 logistics companies in China. In September 2015, CJ Logistics (along with Korea National Pension Fund) purchased a 71.4% stake in CJ Rokin Logistics for 455 billion won. This would suggest a value of 637 billion won for a 100% stake in CJ Rokin Logistics which specializes in cold storage distribution and logistics. It is estimated that CJ Rokin Logistics' value has increased to about 1.0 trillion won to1.2 trillion won right now. CJ Logistics currently has a 52.3% stake in CJ Rokin Logistics.</div>

After the market close today, Cj Logistics (000120 KS) announced that it plans to sell its stake in CJ Rokin Logistics (China), which is among the top 50 logistics companies in China. In September 2015, CJ Logistics (along with Korea National Pension Fund) purchased a 71.4% stake in CJ Rokin Logistics for 455 billion won. This would suggest a value of 637 billion won for a 100% stake in CJ Rokin Logistics which specializes in cold storage distribution and logistics. It is estimated that CJ Rokin Logistics' value has increased to about 1.0 trillion won to1.2 trillion won right now. CJ Logistics currently has a 52.3% stake in CJ Rokin Logistics.

Korea M&A Spotlight: CJ Logistics Announces It Will Sell CJ Rokin Logistics (China)

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">
The fried chicken business is big in Korea. Established in 1991, Kyochon F&amp;B ("Kyochon Chicken") is the top fried chicken franchise in Korea and it is getting ready to complete its IPO in November. In the world of F&amp;B, you have Coke vs. Pepsi, Shake Shack vs. Five Guys, and McDonalds vs. Burger King. In the Korean fried chicken business, you have Kyochon vs. other major players including BBQ, BHC, and Pelicana. 
The IPO price range of Kychon F&amp;B is from 10,600 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $53 million to $61 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 267 billion won to 310 billion won, according to bankers' valuation. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 28 October 2020.
Kyochon F&amp;B is much smaller in size than the top three IPOs in Korea this year (SK Biopharm, Kakao Games, and Big Hit Entertainment). However, we believe that the Kyochon F&amp;B will draw a lot of interest among many institutional investors, especially that have long-term investment horizons. 
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The fried chicken business is big in Korea. Established in 1991, Kyochon F&amp;B ("Kyochon Chicken") is the top fried chicken franchise in Korea and it is getting ready to complete its IPO in November. In the world of F&amp;B, you have Coke vs. Pepsi, Shake Shack vs. Five Guys, and McDonalds vs. Burger King. In the Korean fried chicken business, you have Kyochon vs. other major players including BBQ, BHC, and Pelicana. 
The IPO price range of Kychon F&amp;B is from 10,600 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $53 million to $61 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 267 billion won to 310 billion won, according to bankers' valuation. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 28 October 2020.
Kyochon F&amp;B is much smaller in size than the top three IPOs in Korea this year (SK Biopharm, Kakao Games, and Big Hit Entertainment). However, we believe that the Kyochon F&amp;B will draw a lot of interest among many institutional investors, especially that have long-term investment horizons. 


Kyochon F&B IPO Preview - Korean Fried Chicken At Its Best

South Korea

CJ CheilJedang Corp. manufactures processed food products.  The Company's products include refined sugar, monosodium glutamate (MSG), condiment, wheat powder, flour, cooking oil, processed meats, and animal feed.  CJ CheilJedang also manufactures pharmaceutical and household products.

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CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)

Positive Impact of Increasing Global Online Grocery: CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)

Korean F&B companies such as CJCJ may repeat the success stories of Korean cosmetic companies in overseas markets backed by increasing online...

Julie Lee

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Our Q3 screen delivered 600bps of under performance. With volatility is set to increase as we head into H1 2020, which stocks are most at risk in...

David Lepper

Solid Korea Export (+7.7%yoy) In Sep and Positive Implications

Korea export in September increased by 7.7% yoy.

Julie Lee

Korea M&A Spotlight: CJ Logistics Announces It Will Sell CJ Rokin Logistics (China)

After the market close today, Cj Logistics (000120 KS) announced that it plans to sell its stake in CJ Rokin Logistics (China). In September 2015,...

Douglas Kim

Kyochon F&B IPO Preview - Korean Fried Chicken At Its Best

The fried chicken business is big in Korea. Kyochon F&B ("Kyochon Chicken") is the top fried chicken franchise in Korea and it is getting...

Douglas Kim

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