Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F</li>
<li>Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.</li>
<li>In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Chipmakers and chip-making tool providers are set to continue benefitting from the surge in demand that has rallied the equity prices for the companies that are at the forefront of AI-related semiconductor research, development, and production.</li><li>One of the key drivers in the resurgence of new chip demand is the acceleration of upgrade demand for PCs and smartphones to meet the novel generative AI needs, while companies build up storage and data center capabilities to transition to utilizing generative AI capabilities in their operations.</li><li>However, so far, the benefit of the market rally has been disproportionately felt across the industry.</li></ul>

Chipmakers and chip-making tool providers are set to continue benefitting from the surge in demand that has rallied the equity prices for the companies that are at the forefront of AI-related semiconductor research, development, and production.One of the key drivers in the resurgence of new chip demand is the acceleration of upgrade demand for PCs and smartphones to meet the novel generative AI needs, while companies build up storage and data center capabilities to transition to utilizing generative AI capabilities in their operations.However, so far, the benefit of the market rally has been disproportionately felt across the industry.

AI-Driven Semiconductor Rally Leaves Small-Cap Chipmakers Behind

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!</li>
<li>Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. </li>
<li>Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.</li>
</ul>


Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!
Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. 
Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.


Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

<ul>
<li>For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.</li>
<li>For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.</li>
<li>The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25</li>
</ul>


For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.
For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.
The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25


2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.</li>
<li>The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.</li>
<li>TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.


TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

AI-Driven Semiconductor Rally Leaves Small-Cap Chipmakers Behind

Chipmakers and chip-making tool providers are set to continue benefitting from the surge in demand that has rallied the equity prices for the...

Criat

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

​TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

AI-Driven Semiconductor Rally Leaves Small-Cap Chipmakers Behind

Chipmakers and chip-making tool providers are set to continue benefitting from the surge in demand that has rallied the equity prices for the...

Criat

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

​TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...