Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.</li>
<li>Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.</li>
<li>TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.
Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.
TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.


TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

<ul>
<li>TSMC: on track to ahead of schedule to start its 2nm fabs installations. Production planed for late 2025, revenues early 2026. Side benefits from Samsung closing some Foundry capacity.</li>
<li>SK Hynix: the HBM roadmap is accelerating. HBM3e 12H seeing order surge. HBM3e 16H qualification early 2025.</li>
<li>Samsung: after the Semi profit crash in 3Q, rumors of shutting down some Foundry capacity. SK Hynix HBM news flow suggests that SK Hynix’s lead is increasing.</li>
</ul>


TSMC: on track to ahead of schedule to start its 2nm fabs installations. Production planed for late 2025, revenues early 2026. Side benefits from Samsung closing some Foundry capacity.
SK Hynix: the HBM roadmap is accelerating. HBM3e 12H seeing order surge. HBM3e 16H qualification early 2025.
Samsung: after the Semi profit crash in 3Q, rumors of shutting down some Foundry capacity. SK Hynix HBM news flow suggests that SK Hynix’s lead is increasing.


Tech News This Week: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, Apple

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>In a direct rebuttal of what former four former Intel board members recommend, Dr. Barrett claims splitting Intel in two would be bad for Intel and for the United States.</li>
<li>Cites example of AMD splitting out its manufacturing operations, noting that Globalfoundries has "little if any differentiated technology". Yet, GF is on track to deliver $1 billion FCF in 2024. </li>
<li>Strongly backs current CEO Pat Gelsinger, noting that he "has precisely the right strategy and attributes, and he is already driving the right changes". Many would beg to differ.</li>
</ul>


In a direct rebuttal of what former four former Intel board members recommend, Dr. Barrett claims splitting Intel in two would be bad for Intel and for the United States.
Cites example of AMD splitting out its manufacturing operations, noting that Globalfoundries has "little if any differentiated technology". Yet, GF is on track to deliver $1 billion FCF in 2024. 
Strongly backs current CEO Pat Gelsinger, noting that he "has precisely the right strategy and attributes, and he is already driving the right changes". Many would beg to differ.


Intel Former CEO Craig Barrett Says Splitting Intel In Two Is A Bad Idea & Backs Gelsinger

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Qorvo and MediaTek reported mixed results, with Qorvo seeing a significant stock drop due to lowered guidance, indicating possible share loss in flagship smartphones.</li><li>Qualcomm may see strength in the high-end ASP of Android phones, but the RF market is competitive, with Qualcomm and Broadcom potentially impacting competitors like Qorvo and Skyworks.</li><li>Intel faced challenges with credibility on Wall Street due to a Reuters article criticizing CEO Pat's turnaround efforts, highlighting the importance of cultural alignment and strategic decision-making for the company's future.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Qorvo and MediaTek reported mixed results, with Qorvo seeing a significant stock drop due to lowered guidance, indicating possible share loss in flagship smartphones.Qualcomm may see strength in the high-end ASP of Android phones, but the RF market is competitive, with Qualcomm and Broadcom potentially impacting competitors like Qorvo and Skyworks.Intel faced challenges with credibility on Wall Street due to a Reuters article criticizing CEO Pat's turnaround efforts, highlighting the importance of cultural alignment and strategic decision-making for the company's future.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 92: Another week in Semi's Earnings. -AMD, Intel, Capex growth in Cloud

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Tech News This Week: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, Apple

Positive: TSMC 2nm, SK Hynix HBM roadmap accelerating. Negative: Samsung to shut down some Foundry capacity, SK Hynix lead in HBM is growing.

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Former CEO Craig Barrett Says Splitting Intel In Two Is A Bad Idea & Backs Gelsinger

Dr. Barrett claims splitting Intel in two would be bad for Intel & the US. Backs current CEO noting "he has precisely the right strategy and...

William Keating

Episode 92: Another week in Semi's Earnings. -AMD, Intel, Capex growth in Cloud

In summary, the semiconductor industry is experiencing shifts in market dynamics, with companies like Qorvo and Qualcomm making strategic decisions...

The Circuit

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

​TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Tech News This Week: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, Apple

Positive: ​TSMC 2nm, SK Hynix HBM roadmap accelerating. Negative: Samsung to shut down some Foundry capacity, SK Hynix lead in HBM is growing.

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Former CEO Craig Barrett Says Splitting Intel In Two Is A Bad Idea & Backs Gelsinger

Dr. Barrett claims splitting Intel in two would be bad for Intel & the US. Backs current CEO noting "he has precisely the right strategy and...

William Keating

Episode 92: Another week in Semi's Earnings. -AMD, Intel, Capex growth in Cloud

In summary, the semiconductor industry is experiencing shifts in market dynamics, with companies like Qorvo and Qualcomm making strategic decisions...

The Circuit

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Positive: TSMC 2nm, SK Hynix HBM roadmap accelerating. Negative: Samsung to shut down some Foundry capacity, SK Hynix lead in HBM is growing.