Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.</li>
<li>The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.</li>
<li>The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.
The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.
The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.


TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US</li>
<li>Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium</li>
<li>Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small</li>
</ul>


China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small


Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

<ul><li>A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space</li><li>Pretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.</li><li>Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on <a href="https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/237279/index-investors-beware-the-nasdaq-is-rebalancing-next-week.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 24, 2023</a>.</li></ul>

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock spacePretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on July 24, 2023.

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

<ul>
<li>Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out</li>
<li>Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.</li>
<li>There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.</li>
</ul>


Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out
Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.
There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.


Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. </li>
<li>Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.</li>
<li>Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found</li>
</ul>


The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. 
Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.
Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found


Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space Pretty much the entire index is...

Fabricated Knowledge

Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Micron's earnings are boring. And a Vicor signal boost. Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

The H2'23 recovery will likely be muted. Downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments. While most semis are...

William Keating

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