Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>For this channel insight, we speak to industry veterans in IT Services and Real Estate with an objective to understand the changing dynamics in the Industry. Our interactions suggest challenging times ahead for IT Services and multiple sectoral dynamics at play in residential real estate.</p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight </h3>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.</p>
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For this channel insight, we speak to industry veterans in IT Services and Real Estate with an objective to understand the changing dynamics in the Industry. Our interactions suggest challenging times ahead for IT Services and multiple sectoral dynamics at play in residential real estate.


About India Channel Insight 



Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.


India Channel Insight | IT Services, Real Estate

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p><p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p><p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p><p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a>, Russian internet play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Brazilian beverages giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a>, and a rebound call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">1</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Information Technology</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">2</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">3</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">4</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">5</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Real Estate</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">6</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">7</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">8</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">9</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">10</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">89</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left; width: 746px;"><em>Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through New Oriental Education (EDU US), Russian internet play Yandex (YNDX US), Brazilian beverages giant Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ), and a rebound call on Tencent (700 HK).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) 
Information Technology
India
19


2

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
12


3

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
92


4

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
88


5

China Resources Land (1109 HK) 
Real Estate
China
33


6

Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ) 
Consumer Staples
Brazil
56


7

NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) 
Communication
Korea (South)
18


8

Tencent (700 HK) 
Communication
China
61


9

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) 
Consumer Staples
India
70


10

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) 
Consumer Discretionary
India
89

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>CarTrade Tech aims to raise around US$300m in its India IPO. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and Temasek.</p>
<p>CarTrade Tech (CTT) is an online auto portal for sale of cars and two-wheelers in India. It is a multichannel auto platform with coverage and presence across vehicle types and value-added services through its various brands, namely: CarWale, CarTrade, Shriram Automall, BikeWale, CarTrade Exchange, Adroit Auto and AutoBiz.</p>
<p>In 4Q21 (period ending March 21), its platforms had an average of 31.99m unique visitors per month and 814,316 vehicles were listed for auction in FY 2021. </p>
<p>Overall reported revenue grew by 96.9% in FY19 and was up another 22.6% in FY20. While 9M21 revenue points towards a YoY decline in revenue, its user growth has been progressively getting better throughout FY21 showing a strong rebound from COVID-19.</p>
<p>Although, most of the prior growth appears to have come via acquisitions. Were one to adjust for the acquisitions, the underlying growth doesn’t appear to be very strong.</p>

CarTrade Tech aims to raise around US$300m in its India IPO. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and Temasek.
CarTrade Tech (CTT) is an online auto portal for sale of cars and two-wheelers in India. It is a multichannel auto platform with coverage and presence across vehicle types and value-added services through its various brands, namely: CarWale, CarTrade, Shriram Automall, BikeWale, CarTrade Exchange, Adroit Auto and AutoBiz.
In 4Q21 (period ending March 21), its platforms had an average of 31.99m unique visitors per month and 814,316 vehicles were listed for auction in FY 2021. 
Overall reported revenue grew by 96.9% in FY19 and was up another 22.6% in FY20. While 9M21 revenue points towards a YoY decline in revenue, its user growth has been progressively getting better throughout FY21 showing a strong rebound from COVID-19.
Although, most of the prior growth appears to have come via acquisitions. Were one to adjust for the acquisitions, the underlying growth doesn’t appear to be very strong.

CarTrade Tech Pre-IPO - Acquisition Adjusted Growth Remains Low

Devyani International  / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Devyani International Limited (DIL), Yum Brand’s largest franchisor in India, aims to raise around US$250m via its Indian IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares. </p></div><div><p>DIL operates a chain of quick service restaurants (QSRs) in India. Its core business is to operate KFC, Pizza Hut and Costa Coffee in India. It operated 655 stores across 155 cities in India, as of Mar 2021. These include 264 KFC stores, 297 Pizza Hut stores and 44 Costa Coffee stores. It also operates stores in Nepal and Nigeria for KFC and Pizza Hut. In addition, it also runs its own brands Vaango, Food Street, Masala Twist, Ile Bar, Amreli, and Ckrussh Juice Bar in India. Yum owns over 4% stake in the company.</p></div><div><p>We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/devyani-pre-ipo-might-not-do-another-burger-king-india-but-should-be-good" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Devyani Pre-IPO - Might not do another Burger King India but should be good</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/devyani-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-slots-in-neatly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Devyani Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Slots in Neatly</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/devyani-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Devyani Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation.</a></p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.</p></div>

Devyani International Limited (DIL), Yum Brand’s largest franchisor in India, aims to raise around US$250m via its Indian IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares. DIL operates a chain of quick service restaurants (QSRs) in India. Its core business is to operate KFC, Pizza Hut and Costa Coffee in India. It operated 655 stores across 155 cities in India, as of Mar 2021. These include 264 KFC stores, 297 Pizza Hut stores and 44 Costa Coffee stores. It also operates stores in Nepal and Nigeria for KFC and Pizza Hut. In addition, it also runs its own brands Vaango, Food Street, Masala Twist, Ile Bar, Amreli, and Ckrussh Juice Bar in India. Yum owns over 4% stake in the company.We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, Devyani Pre-IPO - Might not do another Burger King India but should be good,  Devyani Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Slots in Neatly and Devyani Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation.In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

Devyani IPO - Still Some Upside on Un-Adjusted EBITDA Basis

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO, making it the the largest listing in India from the technology sector.</p></div><div>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes  </div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-filings-lack-narrative-a-little-bit-of-history-helps" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps, </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-food-delivery-revenue-was-probably-up-16x" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-listed-and-domestic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Listed and Domestic</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-ipo-strong-4q21-has-a-very-long-runway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato IPO - Strong 4Q21, Has a Very Long Runway</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the updates and the trading dynamics.</p></div>

Zomato (ZOM IN) raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO, making it the the largest listing in India from the technology sector.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes  
Zomato Pre-IPO - Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps, 
Zomato Pre-IPO - Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x, and
Zomato Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Listed and Domestic
Zomato IPO - Strong 4Q21, Has a Very Long Runway
In this note, we will talk about the updates and the trading dynamics.

Zomato IPO Trading - Ample Demand for Unique Exposure

India

Tata Consultancy Services, a division of Tata Sons Limited, is a global IT services organization that provides a comprehensive range of IT services to its clients in diverse industries. The Company, caters to finance and banking, insurance, telecommunication, transportation, retail, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and utility industries.

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Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)

India Channel Insight | IT Services, Real Estate

Our interactions suggest challenging times ahead for IT Services and multiple sectoral dynamics at play in residential real estate.

Pranav Bhavsar

Screening for GEMs: August 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

CarTrade Tech Pre-IPO - Acquisition Adjusted Growth Remains Low

CarTrade Tech aims to raise around US$300m in its India IPO. The company is backed by Warburg and Temasek, and claims to be the most popular auto...

Sumeet Singh

Devyani IPO - Still Some Upside on Un-Adjusted EBITDA Basis

Devyani International Limited (DIL), Yum Brand’s largest franchisor in India, aims to raise around US$250m via its Indian IPO. The IPO will be a...

Sumeet Singh

Zomato IPO Trading - Ample Demand for Unique Exposure

Zomato (ZOM IN) raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO, making it the the largest listing in India from the technology sector.

Sumeet Singh

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