Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in earnings, material negative FCF (owing to lower steel prices) and narrower margins (due to a surge in cheap imports, particularly from China).</li>
<li>The balance sheet deteriorated, with debt increasing and earnings softening. Liquidity also weakened.</li>
<li>While the company has guided for improvement in H2/24-25, it did not provide credible justification for this during the earning call besides noting that JSW raised selling prices in October 2024. </li>
</ul>


JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in earnings, material negative FCF (owing to lower steel prices) and narrower margins (due to a surge in cheap imports, particularly from China).
The balance sheet deteriorated, with debt increasing and earnings softening. Liquidity also weakened.
While the company has guided for improvement in H2/24-25, it did not provide credible justification for this during the earning call besides noting that JSW raised selling prices in October 2024. 


JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel</li>
<li>
In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
</li>
<li>
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.
</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel

In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).


The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.



Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18262'>Vista Land & Lifescapes</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.JSW Steel LtdVista Land & Lifescapes

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of value-added products was high and continued to increase. The financial risk profile was unchanged q-o-q, but improved significantly from FYE 2022-23. However, liquidity deteriorated and was barely adequate. We expect a stronger FY 2024-25 with higher revenue and earnings, as the steel operating environment appears to have bottomed out. Steel prices should remain stable, with possible upside. That said, the higher earnings could be offset by an increase in debt to cover the large and growing capex.

  While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of value-added products was high and continued to increase. The financial risk profile was unchanged q-o-q, but improved significantly from FYE 2022-23. However, liquidity deteriorated and was barely adequate.   We expect a stronger FY 2024-25 with higher revenue and earnings, as the steel operating environment appears to have bottomed out. Steel prices should remain stable, with possible upside. That said, the higher earnings could be offset by an increase in debt to cover the large and growing capex. 

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

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Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

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Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is "evaluating" the U.S. tariff negotiation offer, demanding tariff removal and addressing practices, while the U.S. stays optimistic.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oyo-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28861:1" rel="noopener">Oyo (1698548D IN)</a> delays its IPO to 2026, targeting a $7 billion valuation, amid SoftBank’s concerns and restructuring of a $2.2 billion loan. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>'s resolution plan for Bhushan Power is rejected by the Supreme Court, directing liquidation, causing shares to drop 6%.</li>
</ul>


China is "evaluating" the U.S. tariff negotiation offer, demanding tariff removal and addressing practices, while the U.S. stays optimistic.

Oyo (1698548D IN) delays its IPO to 2026, targeting a $7 billion valuation, amid SoftBank’s concerns and restructuring of a $2.2 billion loan. 

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)'s resolution plan for Bhushan Power is rejected by the Supreme Court, directing liquidation, causing shares to drop 6%.


#141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback

India

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of...

Lucror Analytics

#141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback

China evaluates US tariff offer, demands removal and practices addressed; US optimistic. Oyo delays IPO to 2026 for $7B valuation, JSW Steel's...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of...

Lucror Analytics

#141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback

​China evaluates US tariff offer, demands removal and practices addressed; US optimistic. Oyo delays IPO to 2026 for $7B valuation, JSW Steel's...

Sudarshan Bhandari

China evaluates US tariff offer, demands removal and practices addressed; US optimistic. Oyo delays IPO to 2026 for $7B valuation, JSW Steel's...