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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain BUY rating on JSW Steel (JSWS) with an unchanged target price of INR 1,080/share</li><li>We interacted with the management on business outlook</li><li>The ramp-up of recently commissioned 6mn MT steel capacities across Vijayanagar and BPSL plants has accelerated production in Q4FY25 and sales should also remain strong (we estimate 15% YoY consolidated volume growth in Q4FY25)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain BUY rating on JSW Steel (JSWS) with an unchanged target price of INR 1,080/shareWe interacted with the management on business outlookThe ramp-up of recently commissioned 6mn MT steel capacities across Vijayanagar and BPSL plants has accelerated production in Q4FY25 and sales should also remain strong (we estimate 15% YoY consolidated volume growth in Q4FY25)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JSW Steel: Volume Growth Firms up on Capacity Ramp-Up. Maintain BUY

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In the US, the S&amp;P preliminary services PMI fell to 52.8 (56.5 e / 56.8 p), while the manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1 (49.8 e / 49.4 p).</li>
<li>The preliminary composite PMI declined to 52.4 (55.6 e / 55.4 p). Separately, the January (final) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 71.1 (74.0 p).</li>
<li>Treasuries climbed slightly, following the weaker than expected January preliminary PMI data. </li>
</ul>


In the US, the S&amp;P preliminary services PMI fell to 52.8 (56.5 e / 56.8 p), while the manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1 (49.8 e / 49.4 p).
The preliminary composite PMI declined to 52.4 (55.6 e / 55.4 p). Separately, the January (final) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 71.1 (74.0 p).
Treasuries climbed slightly, following the weaker than expected January preliminary PMI data. 


Trung Nguyen

<ul>
<li>Incorporated in India, JSW Steel was established in 1994 and listed on the Indian stock exchange in 1995.</li>
<li>The company is the largest steel producer in the country (only taking into account capacity in India) and seventh-largest in the world.</li>
<li>It had 34.7 mtpa of capacity at FYE 2023-24, most of which was based in India (33.2 mtpa). </li>
</ul>


Incorporated in India, JSW Steel was established in 1994 and listed on the Indian stock exchange in 1995.
The company is the largest steel producer in the country (only taking into account capacity in India) and seventh-largest in the world.
It had 34.7 mtpa of capacity at FYE 2023-24, most of which was based in India (33.2 mtpa). 


<ul>
<li>JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in earnings, material negative FCF (owing to lower steel prices) and narrower margins (due to a surge in cheap imports, particularly from China).</li>
<li>The balance sheet deteriorated, with debt increasing and earnings softening. Liquidity also weakened.</li>
<li>While the company has guided for improvement in H2/24-25, it did not provide credible justification for this during the earning call besides noting that JSW raised selling prices in October 2024. </li>
</ul>


JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in earnings, material negative FCF (owing to lower steel prices) and narrower margins (due to a surge in cheap imports, particularly from China).
The balance sheet deteriorated, with debt increasing and earnings softening. Liquidity also weakened.
While the company has guided for improvement in H2/24-25, it did not provide credible justification for this during the earning call besides noting that JSW raised selling prices in October 2024. 


JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18262'>Vista Land & Lifescapes</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.JSW Steel LtdVista Land & Lifescapes

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

India

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

JSW Steel: Volume Growth Firms up on Capacity Ramp-Up. Maintain BUY

We maintain BUY rating on JSW Steel (JSWS) with an unchanged target price of INR 1,080/share. We interacted with the management on business outlook

HDFC Securities

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the S&P preliminary services PMI fell to 52.8 (56.5 e / 56.8 p), while the manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1 (49.8 e / 49.4 p).

Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel - ESG Report

The company is the largest steel producer in the country (only taking into account capacity in India) and seventh-largest in the world.

Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel has released Q2/24-25 numbers that were weaker than expected in our view, with a yoy decline in revenue, significantly larger decrease in...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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