Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.</li><li>ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.</li><li>iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. </li></ul>

The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. 

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,180/1,167 points and the resistance at 1,193/1,200 points.</li><li>The medium-term outlook remains in a downtrend, with the index forming a zig-zag down pattern to find the bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index has resumed its decline, testing the previous new low of 1,186.36 points (recorded on February 28) to determine whether this is the cycle's bottom or if it will continue downward to establish a new low. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,180/1,167 points and the resistance at 1,193/1,200 points.The medium-term outlook remains in a downtrend, with the index forming a zig-zag down pattern to find the bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.In the short term, the index has resumed its decline, testing the previous new low of 1,186.36 points (recorded on February 28) to determine whether this is the cycle's bottom or if it will continue downward to establish a new low. 

KTX Zoom - Keep an Eye on Trump's Speech and US Retail Sector Earnings

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,192/1,186 points and the resistance at 1,210/1,217 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a zig-zag down downtrend, searching for the bottom within the range of 1,187-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, a technical rebound is underway after the index hit a new low for the year and fell to the lowest level in nearly four years and 11 months since April 7, 2020, at 1,173.14 points. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,192/1,186 points and the resistance at 1,210/1,217 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a zig-zag down downtrend, searching for the bottom within the range of 1,187-1,506 points.In the short term, a technical rebound is underway after the index hit a new low for the year and fell to the lowest level in nearly four years and 11 months since April 7, 2020, at 1,173.14 points. 

<ul><li>We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.</li><li>We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.</li><li>CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. </li></ul>

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. 

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410/1,416 points.</li><li>For the overall picture, the index is still in an uptrend pattern, testing the upchannel resistance at around 1,348-1,432 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index is beginning to show signs of a correction after rising sharply by nearly 40 points in the previous three trading days.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410/1,416 points.For the overall picture, the index is still in an uptrend pattern, testing the upchannel resistance at around 1,348-1,432 points.In the short term, the index is beginning to show signs of a correction after rising sharply by nearly 40 points in the previous three trading days.

Thailand

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited owns and manages hotels and quick service restaurants. The Company operates its hotels under the banner of Centara Hotels & Resorts and franchises western and Japanese quick service restaurants.

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Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

We maintain a Neutral view on the sector and select CENTEL as the top pick (Outperform; TP at Bt39.00), given its stronger-than-peer earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Keep an Eye on Trump's Speech and US Retail Sector Earnings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,180/1,167 points and the resistance at 1,193/1,200 points.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - MARCH 3, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,192/1,186 points and the resistance at 1,210/1,217...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 17, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410...

Krungthai XSpring

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