ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. </li>
<li>The past week saw insights published on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-Tail (ITC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Thailand's economy and Malaysia's impending election, as well as insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-chain-hospital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:882:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. 
The past week saw insights published on Prodia, I-Tail (ITC TB), Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)  Singtel (ST SP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), and Golden Agri Resources.
There were also macro insights on Thailand's economy and Malaysia's impending election, as well as insights on Minor International, Berli Jucker, Kerry Express Thailand, and Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB).


The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Diagnosed with Prodia, ITail, and Jardine C&C

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2021, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a></strong>'s surprising VTO for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a></strong> was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.</li>
<li>The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. </li>
</ul>


In April 2021, Gulf Energy (GULF TB)'s surprising VTO for Intouch (INTUCH TB) was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for Thaicom (THCOM TB).
Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.
The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. 


Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a></strong>'s shareholders approved <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a></strong> acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener"><strong>DTAC</strong></a> / <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a></strong> merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does <em>not</em> require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)'s shareholders approved Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB).
The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.
Separately, the DTAC / True merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.


Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is a head-scratcher.</p>
<div>
<p>Below is a timeline of events that unfolded since April last year, together with my insights:</p>
</div>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">
<h3>Date</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<h3>Data in the Date</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">7-Apr-20</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<div>
<p>Temasek was understood to be selling 135.2m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> at between Bt45.12-Bt46.3/share, or a discount of 2% to 4.5% to the prior closing price. The news was initially sourced from Bloomberg. <br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/Y44cD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intouch: Temasek Trims Stake; More To Come</a></em></p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">28-Aug-20</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>’s board of directors <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=15985721258680&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decided</a> to hold no more than a 10% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>. As of August 21, Gulf holds a 7.99% stake in Intouch.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/c7MNt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Gulf's Questionable Stake In Intouch</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">6-Oct-20</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">10% was achieved on the <a href="https://www.set.or.th/dat/news/202010/20111444.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6 October</a>, making Gulf the second-largest shareholder behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> (21%). </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">30-Dec-20</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Gulf <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=16092855169460&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> "<em>that the Board of Directors’ of the Company on October 6, 2020, November 30, 2020 and December 29, 2020 has resolved to approve the Company’s additional investment in the ordinary shares in INTUCH in aggregate of up to 5.00 per cent</em>." As at 30 December, Gulf held <a href="https://www.intouchcompany.com/Download/intuch/INTUCH-Notification%20of%20a%20change%20in%20the%20Company%E2%80%99s%20shareholding%20structure%20made%20by%20a%20major%20shareholder.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14.39%</a>.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">28-Jan-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Gulf holds 15% on <a href="https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30402235" target="_blank" rel="noopener">28 January</a>.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">12-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">I (incorrectly) suggested reversing the stub given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s long-term discount to NAV and the simple ratio (Intouch over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>) are at all-time extremes.  <br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/Vekzg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Reverse Intouch's Stub; (Potentially) Set Up PICC (1339 HK)'s</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">19-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Gulf <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16187886028860&amp;sequence=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it intends to make a Voluntary Tender Offer (VTO) for shares not held in Intouch at Bt65/share. If it gets to 50%, it will make a downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service PCL (ADVANC-R TB)</a> at Bt122.86/share. The VTO is conditional, amongst other things, on a waiver NOT to make a  downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB</a>.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/YTbgf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings: Gulf's Inexplicable Offer</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">1-Jun-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;"> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> has <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=16221589634070&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reduced</a> the downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> to Bt120.93/share from Bt122.86/share. It appears the new number is based on the latest financial figures, up to 31 March.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">4-Jun-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">160mn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> - a 4.99% stake - traded after the close at Bt64.86/share.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/TpN7Z" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Intouch's Big Share Transfer</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">29-Jun-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>'s Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> starts <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16248374186790&amp;sequence=2021071934" target="_blank" rel="noopener">today</a>.  The Offer closes on the 4 August - 25 business days. <br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/bBx6r" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">19-Jul-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153870&amp;sequence=2021078813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">says</a> the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> is "appropriate". Equally unsurprising, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153760&amp;sequence=2021078811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has</a> the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.<br><br><em><a href="https://skr.ma/7DTjP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS</a></em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">5-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">The Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl-3e2a0083-1080-4c9c-86c6-10624bce3a2a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28056:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings PCL (INTUCH-R TB)</a> has closed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> acquiring <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16281206078180&amp;sequence=2021084057" target="_blank" rel="noopener">23.32%</a>, taking its stake to 42.25%.<br><br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> expected (in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/gXuQc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GULF/INTUCH: Large Tenders Will Result in Big Passive Sell</a></em>) FTSE to lower <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s investability weight to 36.75% and MSCI to lower the FIF to 40%. Together, passive funds will need to sell around 84.45m shares (US$161m; 14.5 days of ADV).</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">16-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Just 2,032 shares <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16290671598140&amp;sequence=2021091609" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tendered</a> into the downstream Offer for AIS. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 746.012px;"><em>Source: SET announcements, my insights</em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div>
<p>Back in early June, I recommend avoiding Intouch, but not shorting it, or short tender the stock into Gulf's Offer.</p>
<p>Extraordinary - or perhaps given the unprecedented events - the NAV discount went from 9.7% at the close of the Offer, to a 16.8% premium as of yesterday.</p>
<p>The implied stub and the simple ratio (Intouch/AIS) have never been at such extreme levels.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/440/original/image_83946068721631064197442.png?1631064198" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228440"></figure>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: CapIQ</div>
<div>
<p>Sarath Ratanavadi’s Gulf Energy failed to achieve majority ownership in Intouch. There is nothing, to the best of my knowledge, keeping Gulf from buying more shares in the market (not exceeding Bt65/share), although if Gulf's stake clears 50% of shares out, then it would be obligated to make an MTO.</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.isranews.org/article/isranews-news/102276-gov-thaicom-concession-news.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">local news</a> and Bloomberg - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>'s SET <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16310581966210&amp;sequence=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filing</a> - Thailand's cabinet has made an order for Intouch to lift its take to at least 51% in Thaicom, from 41.13% currently. </p>
<p>Thaicom's shares jumped 15% on the news yesterday. Intouch gained ~3%.</p>
<p>It's not a lot of money for Intouch, but it's a good opportunity to provide some background on its stake in Thaicom, and potential trade ideas for Intouch.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
</div>

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is a head-scratcher.

Below is a timeline of events that unfolded since April last year, together with my insights:






Date


Data in the Date



7-Apr-20


Temasek was understood to be selling 135.2m shares of Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) at between Bt45.12-Bt46.3/share, or a discount of 2% to 4.5% to the prior closing price. The news was initially sourced from Bloomberg.   Intouch: Temasek Trims Stake; More To Come




28-Aug-20

Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)’s board of directors decided to hold no more than a 10% stake in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB). As of August 21, Gulf holds a 7.99% stake in Intouch.  StubWorld: Gulf's Questionable Stake In Intouch



6-Oct-20
10% was achieved on the 6 October, making Gulf the second-largest shareholder behind Singtel (ST SP) (21%). 


30-Dec-20
Gulf announced "that the Board of Directors’ of the Company on October 6, 2020, November 30, 2020 and December 29, 2020 has resolved to approve the Company’s additional investment in the ordinary shares in INTUCH in aggregate of up to 5.00 per cent." As at 30 December, Gulf held 14.39%.


28-Jan-21
Gulf holds 15% on 28 January.


12-Apr-21
I (incorrectly) suggested reversing the stub given Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s long-term discount to NAV and the simple ratio (Intouch over Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)) are at all-time extremes.    StubWorld: Reverse Intouch's Stub; (Potentially) Set Up PICC (1339 HK)'s



19-Apr-21
Gulf announced it intends to make a Voluntary Tender Offer (VTO) for shares not held in Intouch at Bt65/share. If it gets to 50%, it will make a downstream offer for Advanced Info Service PCL (ADVANC-R TB) at Bt122.86/share. The VTO is conditional, amongst other things, on a waiver NOT to make a  downstream offer for Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB.  Intouch Holdings: Gulf's Inexplicable Offer



1-Jun-21
 Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) has reduced the downstream offer for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) to Bt120.93/share from Bt122.86/share. It appears the new number is based on the latest financial figures, up to 31 March.


4-Jun-21
160mn shares of Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) - a 4.99% stake - traded after the close at Bt64.86/share.  StubWorld: Intouch's Big Share Transfer



29-Jun-21

Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)'s Tender Offer for Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) starts today.  The Offer closes on the 4 August - 25 business days.   StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open



19-Jul-21

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s IFA says the Offer from Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) is "appropriate". Equally unsurprising, Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)'s IFA has the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.  StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS



5-Aug-21
The Offer for Intouch Holdings PCL (INTUCH-R TB) has closed with Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) acquiring 23.32%, taking its stake to 42.25%.  Brian Freitas expected (in GULF/INTUCH: Large Tenders Will Result in Big Passive Sell) FTSE to lower Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s investability weight to 36.75% and MSCI to lower the FIF to 40%. Together, passive funds will need to sell around 84.45m shares (US$161m; 14.5 days of ADV).


16-Aug-21
Just 2,032 shares tendered into the downstream Offer for AIS. 


Source: SET announcements, my insights





Back in early June, I recommend avoiding Intouch, but not shorting it, or short tender the stock into Gulf's Offer.
Extraordinary - or perhaps given the unprecedented events - the NAV discount went from 9.7% at the close of the Offer, to a 16.8% premium as of yesterday.
The implied stub and the simple ratio (Intouch/AIS) have never been at such extreme levels.


Source: CapIQ

Sarath Ratanavadi’s Gulf Energy failed to achieve majority ownership in Intouch. There is nothing, to the best of my knowledge, keeping Gulf from buying more shares in the market (not exceeding Bt65/share), although if Gulf's stake clears 50% of shares out, then it would be obligated to make an MTO.
The New News
According to local news and Bloomberg - and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)'s SET filing - Thailand's cabinet has made an order for Intouch to lift its take to at least 51% in Thaicom, from 41.13% currently. 
Thaicom's shares jumped 15% on the news yesterday. Intouch gained ~3%.
It's not a lot of money for Intouch, but it's a good opportunity to provide some background on its stake in Thaicom, and potential trade ideas for Intouch.
More below the fold. 


<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
</div>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153870&amp;sequence=2021078813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">says</a> the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> is "<em>appropriate</em>". Equally unsurprising, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153760&amp;sequence=2021078811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has</a> the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Not surprisingly, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s IFA says the Offer from Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) is "appropriate". Equally unsurprising, Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)'s IFA has the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.



Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

Thailand

Thaicom PCL operates satellite communication business. The Company operates and provides satellite transponder services. Thaicom also provides Internet, satellite uplink/downlink, and telephone network services.

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Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Diagnosed with Prodia, ITail, and Jardine C&C

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

This is a low-balled Offer from Gulf, Singtel can scupper the transaction. But would they want to be immersed in the politics overseeing the...

David Blennerhassett

Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

I'd still be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info. I believe a more reasonable discount to NAV target is >20%.

David Blennerhassett

Intouch (INTUCH TB): It's All Happening

Current levels for Intouch are unsustainable and unjustifiable. I like to see this premium reverse before getting involved. The fortunes of...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

I would still avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it, or short tender the stock. Best to wait until the close of the Offer to get a clearer...

David Blennerhassett

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