Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity prices would drive sufficiently strong returns in the future to justify their initial excesses.</li><li class="p1">But with crude prices now at once-in-a-generation lows and with a recovery still probably several quarters away, shale producers have been forced to adapt to an environment that few (if any) were built to profitably operate in.</li></ul><p class="p1"><em>Analyst: David Meats</em></p>

Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity prices would drive sufficiently strong returns in the future to justify their initial excesses.But with crude prices now at once-in-a-generation lows and with a recovery still probably several quarters away, shale producers have been forced to adapt to an environment that few (if any) were built to profitably operate in.Analyst: David Meats

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>Last night, the Sydney Morning Herald carried an article titled <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/ferrovial-digs-in-for-long-haul-after-broadspectrum-rejection-of-715m-takeover-20160129-gmgr7b.html" target="_blank">Ferrovial Digs In For the Long Haul After Broadspectrum Rejection of [A]$715mm Takeover.</a> </p><blockquote>
<p>Broadspectrum suitor Ferrovial is settling in for a long takeover battle, with the Spanish company waiting for regulatory approvals before issuing a formal response to the contractor's rejection of its $715 million hostile bid.</p>
<p>Ferrovial is preparing a response to Broadspectrum, which was previously known as Transfield Services, but is in no…</p>
</blockquote>

Last night, the Sydney Morning Herald carried an article titled Ferrovial Digs In For the Long Haul After Broadspectrum Rejection of [A]$715mm Takeover. 
Broadspectrum suitor Ferrovial is settling in for a long takeover battle, with the Spanish company waiting for regulatory approvals before issuing a formal response to the contractor's rejection of its $715 million hostile bid.
Ferrovial is preparing a response to Broadspectrum, which was previously known as Transfield Services, but is in no…


Ferrovial Peeks Head Out From Behind Mattress Yet Again

<p>A few hours ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5">Broadspectrum</a> released its <a href="http://tse.live.irmau.com/irm/showdownloaddoc.aspx?SiteId=254&amp;AnnounceGuid=60ccaa34-68fe-4c0c-89dc-d6a9333e17be" target="_blank">Target's Statement</a> regarding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21031" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21031">Ferrovial</a>'s unsolicited Offer to acquire 50.1% of the shares at A$1.35/share.</p><p>This is as expected.  The chairman's letter and the board unanimously recommends shareholders REJECT, for lots of reasons. Some are valid. Some are not. The main reasons explained in the Chairman's Letter are as follows: </p><ol><li>Ferrovial's Offer "Significantly undervalues your Broadspectrum shares" as the Independent Expert came up with a fair value range…</li></ol>

A few hours ago, Broadspectrum released its Target's Statement regarding Ferrovial's unsolicited Offer to acquire 50.1% of the shares at A$1.35/share.This is as expected.  The chairman's letter and the board unanimously recommends shareholders REJECT, for lots of reasons. Some are valid. Some are not. The main reasons explained in the Chairman's Letter are as follows: Ferrovial's Offer "Significantly undervalues your Broadspectrum shares" as the Independent Expert came up with a fair value range…

Broadspectrum Peaks Head Out from Behind Mattress. Shoots. Ducks Again.

Australia

WorleyParsons Limited provides professional services through alliance and integrated service contracts to the energy, resource and complex process industries.  The Company provides its services to industrial sectors such as oil and gas refining, petrochemicals and chemicals, minerals and metals, power and water and industrial and infrastructure.

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WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU)

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

Moat or Mother Fracker?

Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity...

Morningstar, Inc.

Ferrovial Peeks Head Out From Behind Mattress Yet Again

Last night, the Sydney Morning Herald carried an article titled Ferrovial Digs In For the Long Haul After Broadspectrum Rejection of [A]$715mm...

Travis Lundy

Broadspectrum Peaks Head Out from Behind Mattress. Shoots. Ducks Again.

A few hours ago, Broadspectrum released its Target's Statement regarding Ferrovial's unsolicited Offer to acquire 50.1% of the shares at...

Travis Lundy

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