China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Two recent reports on business confidence from the European Union and the American Chambers of Commerce in China show a marked fall in business confidence over the past year. Both reports share common concerns, although there are some marked differences, particularly on the question of innovation.

Two recent reports on business confidence from the European Union and the American Chambers of Commerce in China show a marked fall in business confidence over the past year. Both reports share common concerns, although there are some marked differences, particularly on the question of innovation.

US, EU Business Confidence Falls in China

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven and reveals a lot about the economic health and consumption. The debt support may have helped the economy for a while but shows its limits.A look at the country’s import and exports by volume reveals crucial information. Base commodity imports are shown in Figure 1 have been growing since the first of the year, even when the price impacts do not pass…

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven and reveals a lot about the economic health and consumption. The debt support may have helped the economy for a while but shows its limits.A look at the country’s import and exports by volume reveals crucial information. Base commodity imports are shown in Figure 1 have been growing since the first of the year, even when the price impacts do not pass…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by country and by sector, simple averages are hugely misleading.What matters from the perspective of a bank analysis, is how prominently debt-laden companies feature with low levels of interest cover. This is where the analysis can be helpful in considering the outlook for NPL formation and credit costs.<div class="content-highlight"> India stands out in absolute terms, but also in the…</div>

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by country and by sector, simple averages are hugely misleading.What matters from the perspective of a bank analysis, is how prominently debt-laden companies feature with low levels of interest cover. This is where the analysis can be helpful in considering the outlook for NPL formation and credit costs. India stands out in absolute terms, but also in the…

Asia - Interest Coverage Data Is Dire for India, and China

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

China

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited processes crude oil into a broad range of synthetic fibers, resins and plastics, intermediate petrochemical products and petroleum products.

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Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK)

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

US, EU Business Confidence Falls in China

Two recent reports on business confidence from the European Union and the American Chambers of Commerce in China show a marked fall in business...

Bixmoor

Inside China's May 2016 Trade Data

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven...

Christopher Balding

Asia - Interest Coverage Data Is Dire for India, and China

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by...

Daniel Tabbush

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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