Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.</li>
<li>Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.
Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

<ul>
<li>The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-of-lithium-equals-has-index-surprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101879" rel="noopener">Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-enlarged-charging-unit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101914" rel="noopener">Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit</a> is on track.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230928/pdf/05vdp2j4k6sqn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As of the end of last month</a>, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.</li>
<li>The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.</li>
</ul>


The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises and Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit is on track.

As of the end of last month, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.
The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.


Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update:  MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Sinohytec   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-sinohytec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34068:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Sinohytec Co Ltd (688339 CH)</a> (BSH) is looking to raise up to US$400m via its H-shares listing.</li>
<li>BSH provides fuel cell systems in China, focusing on the design, development and manufacture of fuel cell systems and stacks mainly for commercial vehicles, such as buses and trucks.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we’ll talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Beijing Sinohytec Co Ltd (688339 CH) (BSH) is looking to raise up to US$400m via its H-shares listing.
BSH provides fuel cell systems in China, focusing on the design, development and manufacture of fuel cell systems and stacks mainly for commercial vehicles, such as buses and trucks.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we’ll talk about valuations.


Beijing SinoHytec A/​H Listing - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the HSCEI INDEX and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.


Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

China

Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. researches and produces lithium products and operates import, export and manufacturing businesses for its own products.  The Company's products include lithium metal, lithium aluminum hydride, lithium fluoride, lithium chloride, and other chemical products of lithium.

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Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND's net buy the previous week was a one-off perhaps. This week saw heavy net selling across the board. Not index-weighted.

Travis Lundy

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

Beijing SinoHytec A/H Listing - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

Beijing Sinohytec Co Ltd (688339 CH) (BSH) is looking to raise up to US$400m via its H-shares listing. In this note, we'll talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

We expect 7 HK listed stocks to be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The stocks have underperformed the HSCEI and their peers as...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND's net buy the previous week was a one-off perhaps. This week saw heavy net selling across the board. Not index-weighted.

Travis Lundy

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

Beijing SinoHytec A/​H Listing - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

Beijing Sinohytec Co Ltd (688339 CH) (BSH) is looking to raise up to US$400m via its H-shares listing. In this note, we'll talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

We expect 7 HK listed stocks to be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The stocks have underperformed the HSCEI and their peers as...

Brian Freitas

Beijing SinoHytec A/H Listing - Initial Thoughts on Valuation