Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a> last week <a href="https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_ca7702ae49c039154861b9bb46736c56/intel/news/2020-10-22_Intel_Reports_Third_Quarter_2020_Financial_1424.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Q3 revenues of $18.3 billion, marginally exceeding their forecast. Net income came in at $4.3 billion, again largely in line with expectations. Looking ahead, Intel pegged fourth quarter earnings at a respectable $17.4 billion, implying a FY 2020 revenue of $73.5 billion, $300 million higher than the July forecast and $1.5 billion higher than the January forecast. </p><p>These notable results notwithstanding, Intel's share price was immediately down 10% the following day and, after the latest market rout on Monday, is now down 14% since just prior to earnings. What was it about Intel's latest earnings report that triggered such a negative response? Here's what we think is going on. </p>

Intel last week reported Q3 revenues of $18.3 billion, marginally exceeding their forecast. Net income came in at $4.3 billion, again largely in line with expectations. Looking ahead, Intel pegged fourth quarter earnings at a respectable $17.4 billion, implying a FY 2020 revenue of $73.5 billion, $300 million higher than the July forecast and $1.5 billion higher than the January forecast. These notable results notwithstanding, Intel's share price was immediately down 10% the following day and, after the latest market rout on Monday, is now down 14% since just prior to earnings. What was it about Intel's latest earnings report that triggered such a negative response? Here's what we think is going on. 

Intel. Reality Bites As Margins Shrink On The Back Of Mix, 10nm Yields & Growing Competition

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix</a> this week <a href="https://news.skhynix.com/sk-hynix-to-acquire-intel-nand-memory-business/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> their intention to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> NAND memory business in a complex deal valued at $9 billion. The move comes as little surprise following comments relating to the loss-making memory division made by Intel CEO Bob Swan earlier this year. What is surprising is the structure of the deal. While $7 billion in cash will be payable once the deal clears regulatory hurdles, thought to be in lat 2021, the remaining $2 billion will only be paid on "final closure" in March 2025. </p><p>What are the implications of this deal for the broader NAND industry? Is the deal a good one for both Intel and SK Hynix?  Why is the deal structured in such a complex and drawn-out fashion? Here's our thoughts.</p>

SK Hynix this week announced their intention to acquire Intel's NAND memory business in a complex deal valued at $9 billion. The move comes as little surprise following comments relating to the loss-making memory division made by Intel CEO Bob Swan earlier this year. What is surprising is the structure of the deal. While $7 billion in cash will be payable once the deal clears regulatory hurdles, thought to be in lat 2021, the remaining $2 billion will only be paid on "final closure" in March 2025. What are the implications of this deal for the broader NAND industry? Is the deal a good one for both Intel and SK Hynix?  Why is the deal structured in such a complex and drawn-out fashion? Here's our thoughts.

Intel. Thoughts On The Proposed NAND Flash Sale To SK Hynix.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>Toshiba was up 4.1% today as it was announced that SK Hynix would be purchasing Intel’s NAND flash and SSD businesses (but not its 3D XPoint business) for $9bn. Ostensibly the market is assuming that consolidation within the industry will raise margins and reduce volatility but this point is debatable in commodity markets as Jim Handy has repeatedly explained. On the other hand, there are negatives for Toshiba with this deal and we delve into these below.</p>

Toshiba was up 4.1% today as it was announced that SK Hynix would be purchasing Intel’s NAND flash and SSD businesses (but not its 3D XPoint business) for $9bn. Ostensibly the market is assuming that consolidation within the industry will raise margins and reduce volatility but this point is debatable in commodity markets as Jim Handy has repeatedly explained. On the other hand, there are negatives for Toshiba with this deal and we delve into these below.

Toshiba – SK Hynix’s Acquisition of Intel’s NAND Operations Hurts Kioxia’s Value

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>The Wall Street Journal today published a leak that Intel and SK hynix are in negotiations for SK hynix to acquire Intel's memory business.  This Smartkarma Insight analyzes such a sale to determine its feasibility.</p>

The Wall Street Journal today published a leak that Intel and SK hynix are in negotiations for SK hynix to acquire Intel's memory business.  This Smartkarma Insight analyzes such a sale to determine its feasibility.

Intel's Memory Business Sale.  Does It Make Sense?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

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<p>As we head into earnings next week, we note attractive setups for Snap and Microsoft from data that came out this week, along with a very bullish presentation at Crowdstrike's user conference.</p>
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<p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p>
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As we head into earnings next week, we note attractive setups for Snap and Microsoft from data that came out this week, along with a very bullish presentation at Crowdstrike's user conference.




Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.




TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/​​​​2020

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel. Reality Bites As Margins Shrink On The Back Of Mix, 10nm Yields & Growing Competition

Despite delivering results slightly ahead of expectations and updating the FY 2020 outlook by a further $300 million, Intel shares are presently...

William Keating

Intel. Thoughts On The Proposed NAND Flash Sale To SK Hynix.

SK Hynix proposed acquisition of Intel's NAND flash business comes as little surprise. What is surprising it that the deal won't finally close...

William Keating

Toshiba – SK Hynix’s Acquisition of Intel’s NAND Operations Hurts Kioxia’s Value

We believe the market's positive interpretation of the impact on Toshiba of the SK Hynix purchase of Intel's NAND assets is incorrect and that the...

Mio Kato

Intel's Memory Business Sale. Does It Make Sense?

The Wall Street journal today published a leak that Intel and SK hynix are in

Jim Handy

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/2020

Datapoints supportive of upside to earnings for Microsoft and Snapchat this past week, plus an ever expanding TAM justifies Crowdstrike's valuation.

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel. Reality Bites As Margins Shrink On The Back Of Mix, 10nm Yields & Growing Competition

Despite delivering results slightly ahead of expectations and updating the FY 2020 outlook by a further $300 million, Intel shares are presently...

William Keating

Intel. Thoughts On The Proposed NAND Flash Sale To SK Hynix.

SK Hynix proposed acquisition of Intel's NAND flash business comes as little surprise. What is surprising it that the deal won't finally close...

William Keating

Toshiba – SK Hynix’s Acquisition of Intel’s NAND Operations Hurts Kioxia’s Value

We believe the market's positive interpretation of the impact on Toshiba of the SK Hynix purchase of Intel's NAND assets is incorrect and that the...

Mio Kato

Intel's Memory Business Sale. Does It Make Sense?

The Wall Street journal today published a leak that Intel and SK hynix are in

Jim Handy

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/​​​​2020

Datapoints supportive of upside to earnings for Microsoft and Snapchat this past week, plus an ever expanding TAM justifies Crowdstrike's valuation.

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/2020