Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AMD's overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years</li>
<li>AMD’s desktop market share rebounded from 13.9% in Q3 2022 to 18.6% in Q4 2022</li>
<li>AMD will likely prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 &amp; 2024, pressing home their clear leadership advantage over Intel in this segment during this timeframe</li>
</ul>


AMD's overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years
AMD’s desktop market share rebounded from 13.9% in Q3 2022 to 18.6% in Q4 2022
AMD will likely prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 &amp; 2024, pressing home their clear leadership advantage over Intel in this segment during this timeframe


AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

<ul>
<li>2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2</li>
<li>The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest</li>
<li>2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2</li>
</ul>


2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2
The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest
2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2


Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

<ul>
<li>Intel's CFO had reiterated his support for maintaining the dividend on multiple occasions since December 2022, most recently at the latest earnings call on January 26 last.</li>
<li>On February 22, Intel issued a press release announcing a 66% dividend cut. </li>
<li>What caused Intel to change their position on the dividend over the course of three weeks last month?</li>
</ul>


Intel's CFO had reiterated his support for maintaining the dividend on multiple occasions since December 2022, most recently at the latest earnings call on January 26 last.
On February 22, Intel issued a press release announcing a 66% dividend cut. 
What caused Intel to change their position on the dividend over the course of three weeks last month?


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. downturn continuing through H1 with recovery in H2. A lot depends on when PC and smartphone unit...

William Keating

Intel's Dividend Cut Debacle

After months of prognostication, Intel finally cut their dividend. What was the final straw that forced the company's hand and saw them bow to the...

William Keating

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook

AMD's overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years. We expect AMD to prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 & 2024,...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. downturn continuing through H1 with recovery in H2. A lot depends on when PC and smartphone unit...

William Keating

Intel's Dividend Cut Debacle

After months of prognostication, Intel finally cut their dividend. What was the final straw that forced the company's hand and saw them bow to the...

William Keating

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas