Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. However, there are plenty of capping and float changes to drive flows.</li>
<li>The December rebalance is expected to have a one-way turnover of 2.3% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.9bn.</li>
<li>Short interest is greater than 5% of float on a few stocks and a continued recovering in markets could lead to a squeeze higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. However, there are plenty of capping and float changes to drive flows.
The December rebalance is expected to have a one-way turnover of 2.3% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.9bn.
Short interest is greater than 5% of float on a few stocks and a continued recovering in markets could lead to a squeeze higher.


Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI sees 4 names out, 4 names in. The ADDs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The DELETEs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>One way volume is just under 4.7% with all the name changes, FAF changes, and capping flows.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI sees 4 names out, 4 names in. The ADDs are PetroChina (857 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK). 
The DELETEs are Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), China Gas Holdings (384 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), and Bilibili (9626 HK). 
One way volume is just under 4.7% with all the name changes, FAF changes, and capping flows.


HSCEI Dec 2022 Rebalance - 4 IN, 4 OUT, 3% One-Way Flow

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Tech Index Review was announced on Friday after the close. There are no name changes but there is decent flow. 3% one-way turnover.</li>
<li>There are five capping changes and one very large share count change making things interesting.</li>
<li>All told, this is less impactful than it was last time, and less impactful than the other index rebalances announced. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Tech Index Review was announced on Friday after the close. There are no name changes but there is decent flow. 3% one-way turnover.
There are five capping changes and one very large share count change making things interesting.
All told, this is less impactful than it was last time, and less impactful than the other index rebalances announced. 


Hang Seng Tech Rebalance Dec 2022 - No Name Changes, Decent Flow

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 4th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

What's happening in semiconductors? When will the downturn end? What does this mean to chip stock prices? This Insight provides some concrete...

Jim Handy

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Float and capping changes are expected to result in a one-way turnover of 2.3% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.9bn. There is large short...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Dec 2022 Rebalance - 4 IN, 4 OUT, 3% One-Way Flow

The HSCEI Index has seen significant pain year-to date and there is less to trade than before, but one-way turnover is ~4.7% and a bare minimum of...

Travis Lundy

Hang Seng Tech Rebalance Dec 2022 - No Name Changes, Decent Flow

The HS Tech Index sees no name changes for the second quarter in a row, but there are lots of capping flows to reduce and raise weights. For that,...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 4th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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