Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Western Carriers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-carriers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39869:1" rel="noopener">Western Carriers (1489172D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Western Carriers (1489172D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zee and Sony Amicably Settle Disputes Over Failed Merger, Withdraw Claims</li>
<li>NSE Files for SEBI NOC to Gain Approval for Long-Awaited IPO Listing</li>
<li>ReNew and Microsoft Forge 437.6 MW Green Energy Pact to Advance Carbon-Negative Goals</li>
</ul>


Zee and Sony Amicably Settle Disputes Over Failed Merger, Withdraw Claims
NSE Files for SEBI NOC to Gain Approval for Long-Awaited IPO Listing
ReNew and Microsoft Forge 437.6 MW Green Energy Pact to Advance Carbon-Negative Goals


# 51 India Insight: Zee-Sony Settle Dispute, NSE Files for IPO, HUL INR 962 Crores GST Notice

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

BrainBees Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">BrainBees Solutions (FirstCry)</a> raised around US$500m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



BrainBees Solutions (FirstCry) raised around US$500m in its India IPO.
FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Brainbees (FirstCry) IPO Trading - Decent Subscription and Valuation

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India

Hindustan Unilever Limited manufactures and distributes consumer products. The Company offers soap, detergent, personal care products and processed food, ice creams, cooking oils, and other related products. Hindustan Unilever serves customers worldwide.

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

Western Carriers (India) Limited is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

# 51 India Insight: Zee-Sony Settle Dispute, NSE Files for IPO, HUL INR 962 Crores GST Notice

Zee and Sony resolve merger disputes, NSE seeks SEBI approval for IPO, ReNew and Microsoft partner for green energy pact to reduce carbon footprint.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Brainbees (FirstCry) IPO Trading - Decent Subscription and Valuation

BrainBees Solutions (FirstCry) raised around US$500m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

Western Carriers (India) Limited is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

# 51 India Insight: Zee-Sony Settle Dispute, NSE Files for IPO, HUL INR 962 Crores GST Notice

​Zee and Sony resolve merger disputes, NSE seeks SEBI approval for IPO, ReNew and Microsoft partner for green energy pact to reduce carbon footprint.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Brainbees (FirstCry) IPO Trading - Decent Subscription and Valuation

BrainBees Solutions (FirstCry) raised around US$500m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Zee and Sony resolve merger disputes, NSE seeks SEBI approval for IPO, ReNew and Microsoft partner for green energy pact to reduce carbon footprint.