Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I <em>still</em> see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I released 1H24 earnings today as well as details on planned restructuring of its business. Results included some one-off items hitting operating profit as well as lower footfall.</li>
<li>The bigger news was the plan to hive off the non-CVS retail operations into a new company, York Holdings, leaving a newly named 7-Eleven Corporation running CVS globally.</li>
<li>Unusually, Seven also mentioned the possibility of new strategic partners investing in York, including even the "original founding families", suggesting one way of holding on to control.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I released 1H24 earnings today as well as details on planned restructuring of its business. Results included some one-off items hitting operating profit as well as lower footfall.
The bigger news was the plan to hive off the non-CVS retail operations into a new company, York Holdings, leaving a newly named 7-Eleven Corporation running CVS globally.
Unusually, Seven also mentioned the possibility of new strategic partners investing in York, including even the "original founding families", suggesting one way of holding on to control.


7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> confirmed receiving a revised non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>. </li>
<li>The rumoured revised offer is US$18.19, a 22.4% premium to the initial US$14.86 offer. The revised terms are attractive vs precedent transactions and analyst price targets.</li>
<li>The Board would cite regulatory concerns and the revised offer's implied discount compared to peer multiples. At tomorrow's results, the Board must present a credible alternative value generation path.</li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) confirmed receiving a revised non-binding proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). 
The rumoured revised offer is US$18.19, a 22.4% premium to the initial US$14.86 offer. The revised terms are attractive vs precedent transactions and analyst price targets.
The Board would cite regulatory concerns and the revised offer's implied discount compared to peer multiples. At tomorrow's results, the Board must present a credible alternative value generation path.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Pressure Mounts with a Couche-Tard Revised Offer

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan to follow US higher on the much better-than-expected jobs report and the yen back to 148.9</li>
<li>Exporters including the Autos with high US exposures as well as Inbound related laggards such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Shiseido/Kose should see sentiment improve</li>
<li>The strong US data should also help the JP Shippers rebound after dropping -8.2% on Fri on the end of the US port workers strike</li>
</ul>


Japan to follow US higher on the much better-than-expected jobs report and the yen back to 148.9
Exporters including the Autos with high US exposures as well as Inbound related laggards such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Shiseido/Kose should see sentiment improve
The strong US data should also help the JP Shippers rebound after dropping -8.2% on Fri on the end of the US port workers strike


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores

Seven & I showed some falls in SSS and income in 1H. Plans to restructure business by creating York Holdings for non-CVS retail ops, with the...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Pressure Mounts with a Couche-Tard Revised Offer

The revised offer will mount pressure to engage. The Board is running out of excuses and will lean heavily on an alternative value generation path...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

Japan's market is expected to rise following the US jobs report, benefiting exporters and shippers after a recent drop.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

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Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores

​Seven & I showed some falls in SSS and income in 1H. Plans to restructure business by creating York Holdings for non-CVS retail ops, with the...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Pressure Mounts with a Couche-Tard Revised Offer

The revised offer will mount pressure to engage. The Board is running out of excuses and will lean heavily on an alternative value generation path...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

​Japan's market is expected to rise following the US jobs report, benefiting exporters and shippers after a recent drop.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Seven & I showed some falls in SSS and income in 1H. Plans to restructure business by creating York Holdings for non-CVS retail ops, with the...

Japan's market is expected to rise following the US jobs report, benefiting exporters and shippers after a recent drop.