Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After a multi-year drop in ownership, Global EM fund exposure in the Tobacco sector is on the rise.</li>
<li>Tobacco remains heavily under-owned, but key EM funds are raising allocations, led by GQG Partners, Virtus, BNY Mellon and Allianz. </li>
<li>ITC Limited has been a key beneficiary of inflows and stands as the most widely owned stock in the sector, followed by KT&amp;G Corp.</li>
</ul>


After a multi-year drop in ownership, Global EM fund exposure in the Tobacco sector is on the rise.
Tobacco remains heavily under-owned, but key EM funds are raising allocations, led by GQG Partners, Virtus, BNY Mellon and Allianz. 
ITC Limited has been a key beneficiary of inflows and stands as the most widely owned stock in the sector, followed by KT&amp;G Corp.


Investors Return to Tobacco Stocks After Multi-Year Decline

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Philip Morris International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Philip Morris ended 2022 on a positive note and delivered another all-around beat.</li><li>The company's volume increased significantly due to the ongoing IQOS development and steady cigarette volume.</li><li>Over a third of the total Philip Morris and more than 50% in 70 markets had smoke-free net revenues for the entire year.</li></ul>

Philip Morris ended 2022 on a positive note and delivered another all-around beat.The company's volume increased significantly due to the ongoing IQOS development and steady cigarette volume.Over a third of the total Philip Morris and more than 50% in 70 markets had smoke-free net revenues for the entire year.

Philip Morris International Inc.: Extended Long-Term Agreement With KT&G & Other Drivers

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the end of the further extended acceptance period, PMHH owns 93.11% of the shares of Swedish Match (obtained both through shares tendered and market purchases).</li>
<li>PMHH intends to initiate compulsory redemption under the Swedish Companies Act to acquire all remaining shares in Swedish Match and request delisting from Nasdaq Stockholm. PMI wins again.</li>
<li>Although the shares are still liquid, gross spread is 2 bps, and therefore there is no trade worth considering, in my view.</li>
</ul>


At the end of the further extended acceptance period, PMHH owns 93.11% of the shares of Swedish Match (obtained both through shares tendered and market purchases).
PMHH intends to initiate compulsory redemption under the Swedish Companies Act to acquire all remaining shares in Swedish Match and request delisting from Nasdaq Stockholm. PMI wins again.
Although the shares are still liquid, gross spread is 2 bps, and therefore there is no trade worth considering, in my view.


Philip Morris/​​Swedish Match: Squeeze-Out

<ul>
<li>PMI has obtained acceptances of 82.59%, waives the 90% acceptance condition and extends the acceptance period until 25 November (settlement on 2 December).</li>
<li>SWMA shares are trading at an all-time high of SEK 115.8. Gross spread is 0.17% (estimated annual return is 2.52%). The market discounts that the offer will be successful.</li>
<li>Done deal. PMI is ready to wait until claiming final victory, quite possibly in the further extended acceptance period. It should be able to squeeze-out and delist. <strong>Accept offer</strong>.</li>
</ul>


PMI has obtained acceptances of 82.59%, waives the 90% acceptance condition and extends the acceptance period until 25 November (settlement on 2 December).
SWMA shares are trading at an all-time high of SEK 115.8. Gross spread is 0.17% (estimated annual return is 2.52%). The market discounts that the offer will be successful.
Done deal. PMI is ready to wait until claiming final victory, quite possibly in the further extended acceptance period. It should be able to squeeze-out and delist. Accept offer.


<ul>
<li>4 November was the deadline to tender. PMI threatened to walk away if it didn't reach 90%. Some funds that opposed the deal trimmed their stakes, likely bought by arbs.</li>
<li>The FT has reported that Elliot (10.5% stake) has tendered and that by 4 November over 80% acceptances were recorded. PMI is very likely to reach now over 90% acceptances.</li>
<li>Results will be announced on 7 November, with settlement on 11 November. The squeeze-out procedure is likely be initialed as soon as possible after settlement. Gross spread is 0.87%.</li>
</ul>


4 November was the deadline to tender. PMI threatened to walk away if it didn't reach 90%. Some funds that opposed the deal trimmed their stakes, likely bought by arbs.
The FT has reported that Elliot (10.5% stake) has tendered and that by 4 November over 80% acceptances were recorded. PMI is very likely to reach now over 90% acceptances.
Results will be announced on 7 November, with settlement on 11 November. The squeeze-out procedure is likely be initialed as soon as possible after settlement. Gross spread is 0.87%.


United States

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, affiliates and their licensees, produces, sells, distributes, and markets a wide range of branded cigarettes and tobacco products in markets outside of the United States of America.  The Company's portfolio comprises both international and local brands.

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Philip Morris International (PM US)

Investors Return to Tobacco Stocks After Multi-Year Decline

After a multi-year drop in ownership, Global Emerging Market fund exposure in the Tobacco Industry group is on the rise.

Steven Holden

Philip Morris International Inc.: Extended Long-Term Agreement With KT&G & Other Drivers

Philip Morris ended 2022 on a positive note and delivered another all-around beat. The company's volume increased significantly due to the ongoing...

Baptista Research

Philip Morris/Swedish Match: Squeeze-Out

The total stake of shares in Swedish Match held by PMHH, correspond to c. 93.11%. It intends to initiate squeeze-out and delisting from Nasdaq...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Offer Becomes Unconditional

PMI has obtained acceptances of 82.59%, waives the 90% acceptance condition and extends the acceptance period until 25 November (settlement on 2...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Elliot Tenders Its Stake

The FT reported that Elliott Management had decided to tender its stake. This means that PMI should get very close to the 90% threshold to initiate...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Investors Return to Tobacco Stocks After Multi-Year Decline

After a multi-year drop in ownership, Global Emerging Market fund exposure in the Tobacco Industry group is on the rise.

Steven Holden

Philip Morris International Inc.: Extended Long-Term Agreement With KT&G & Other Drivers

Philip Morris ended 2022 on a positive note and delivered another all-around beat. The company's volume increased significantly due to the ongoing...

Baptista Research

Philip Morris/​​Swedish Match: Squeeze-Out

The total stake of shares in Swedish Match held by PMHH, correspond to c. 93.11%. It intends to initiate squeeze-out and delisting from Nasdaq...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Offer Becomes Unconditional

PMI has obtained acceptances of 82.59%, waives the 90% acceptance condition and extends the acceptance period until 25 November (settlement on 2...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Elliot Tenders Its Stake

The FT reported that Elliott Management had decided to tender its stake. This means that PMI should get very close to the 90% threshold to initiate...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Philip Morris/Swedish Match: Squeeze-Out