European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.</li>
<li>I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.</li>
<li>There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal</li>
</ul>


On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.
I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.
There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal


Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a></strong>'s all-scrip <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240426/pdf/062w455d52h3cv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unsolicited Offer</a> for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a></strong>, zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.</li>
<li>The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.</li>
<li>The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. </li>
</ul>



BHP (BHP AU)'s all-scrip unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (AAL LN), zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.
The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.
The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. 


BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths, Origin Energy, Xero.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths, Origin Energy, Xero.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wesfarmers, Fortescue, BHP, Endeavour, Worley, Ampol.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wesfarmers, Fortescue, BHP, Endeavour, Worley, Ampol.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Wesfarmers, Fortescue, BHP, Endeavour, Worley, Ampol

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

When "Final" doesn't necessarily mean final. After BHP increased its (final) offer ratio terms by 24.8% to 0.8860 BHP shares for each Anglo share -...

David Blennerhassett

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Wesfarmers, Fortescue, BHP, Endeavour, Worley, Ampol

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wesfarmers, Fortescue, BHP, Endeavour, Worley, Ampol.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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