Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. </li>
<li>We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that BHP Group (BHP AU)'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. 
We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of BHP Group (BHP AU) leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.


BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 1.3%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 9.9% (widened); Shell, nil premium.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 42.7%; GBL, 30%; Heineken Holdings, 17.9%; Industrivärden, 14.4%; Investor AB, 7.5%; Kinnevik B, 22.4% (premium).</li>
<li>Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.</li>
</ul>


Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 1.3%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 9.9% (widened); Shell, nil premium.
Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 42.7%; GBL, 30%; Heineken Holdings, 17.9%; Industrivärden, 14.4%; Investor AB, 7.5%; Kinnevik B, 22.4% (premium).
Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announced yesterday that it had decided to proceed with the Unification idea. This is not surprising in the least. </li>
<li>When BHP announced the idea in August (discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bhp-dlc-unification-on-dirt-diggers-and-deckchairs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) it was already well socialised internally. It needed some external socialisation. Social media promotions started the next day.</li>
<li>Now shareholders have not come out radically against, so this is confirmation the Meetings will be called and votes will go forward. The schedule is faster than thought.</li>
</ul>



BHP Group (BHP AU) announced yesterday that it had decided to proceed with the Unification idea. This is not surprising in the least. 
When BHP announced the idea in August (discussed here) it was already well socialised internally. It needed some external socialisation. Social media promotions started the next day.
Now shareholders have not come out radically against, so this is confirmation the Meetings will be called and votes will go forward. The schedule is faster than thought.


<ul>
<li>Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 2.1%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 8.6%; Shell, nil premium.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV for European holdcos have generally widened during November, following market volatility: Alba, 42.2%; GBL 30.5%; Heineken Holdings 16.4%; Industrivärden, 13.1%; Investor, 12%; Kinnevik B, 19.8% (premium).</li>
<li>Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.</li>
</ul>


Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 2.1%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 8.6%; Shell, nil premium.
Discounts to NAV for European holdcos have generally widened during November, following market volatility: Alba, 42.2%; GBL 30.5%; Heineken Holdings 16.4%; Industrivärden, 13.1%; Investor, 12%; Kinnevik B, 19.8% (premium).
Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Liontown Resources / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Liontown Resource (LTR) is looking to raise around US$321m in its fully underwritten Australian placement.</li>
<li>The company will use the proceeds from the placement to develop its Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Liontown Resource (LTR) is looking to raise around US$321m in its fully underwritten Australian placement.
The company will use the proceeds from the placement to develop its Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Liontown Placement - Large Deal but Appears to Be Well Flagged

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

Brian Freitas

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December. Discount to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed trends.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BHP Unification: Flowfront Accelerated

BHP's Board of Directors announced Unification would go to shareholder votes. Circular out this week, and the vote 6 weeks later, and Unification...

Travis Lundy

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November whilst discounts to NAV for selected European have generally widened.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liontown Placement - Large Deal but Appears to Be Well Flagged

Liontown Resource (LTR) is looking to raise around US$321m in its fully underwritten Australian placement. In this note, we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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