Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to gain market share. This tends to play well for large incumbents; large dominant telcos are increasing their dominance. With increased share of profits flowing to a dominant player, returns for the smaller players can fall to unsustainable levels. &nbsp;A number of outcomes are possible.<ol><li>If the government does not own a large stake in the dominant player then asymmetric regulation is likely to benefit the smaller players.&nbsp;</li><li>Where the government owns a stake in the dominant player, asymmetric regulation is less likely and instead a deeper consolidation of smaller players may be allowed.&nbsp;</li><li>In markets where existing players generate high returns we see a risk of new entry to erode returns. Small cell challengers are likely to be part of this picture.&nbsp;</li></ol>&nbsp;

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to gain market share. This tends to play well for large incumbents; large dominant telcos are increasing their dominance. With increased share of profits flowing to a dominant player, returns for the smaller players can fall to unsustainable levels. &nbsp;A number of outcomes are possible.If the government does not own a large stake in the dominant player then asymmetric regulation is likely to benefit the smaller players.&nbsp;Where the government owns a stake in the dominant player, asymmetric regulation is less likely and instead a deeper consolidation of smaller players may be allowed.&nbsp;In markets where existing players generate high returns we see a risk of new entry to erode returns. Small cell challengers are likely to be part of this picture.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells technology. Many EM telcos face stagnant growth and declining returns in contrast to opportunities in fibre. Rising middle classes in Asia will pay to have fibre in the home. What has been seen as a niche product will have wider resonance as income levels rise. We believe investors are materially underestimating the potential demand for fixed broadband and for the revenues that result. In some ways this is analogous to concepts of addressable markets for mobile operators in the early days of GSM.As we have seen in Europe, we expect a number of the fibre/cable payers to be acquired by cellular firms look to both remove potential competition and to ensure a strong fibre network to deal with soaring data usage.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells technology. Many EM telcos face stagnant growth and declining returns in contrast to opportunities in fibre. Rising middle classes in Asia will pay to have fibre in the home. What has been seen as a niche product will have wider resonance as income levels rise. We believe investors are materially underestimating the potential demand for fixed broadband and for the revenues that result. In some ways this is analogous to concepts of addressable markets for mobile operators in the early days of GSM.As we have seen in Europe, we expect a number of the fibre/cable payers to be acquired by cellular firms look to both remove potential competition and to ensure a strong fibre network to deal with soaring data usage.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

There is a growing expectation that mergers involving huge state-owned conglomerates could be part of China's soon-to-be-announced reforms of state-owned enterprises, according to a report in today's Securities Daily. Li Jin, deputy head of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, said that state-dominated industries with problems of overcapacity, namely construction, electricity and rail would "face large scale mergers and restructuring". The article also notes that rumours of mergers in the construction, energy and telecommunications industry have been circling for a while now. The mergers could help reduce excessive competition between large SOEs, cut waste, encourage the formation of huge conglomerates that could better compete against large foreign firms and also assist in the internationalisation of the Chinese yuan. &nbsp;Below we look at what sectors and stocks could be effected.

There is a growing expectation that mergers involving huge state-owned conglomerates could be part of China's soon-to-be-announced reforms of state-owned enterprises, according to a report in today's Securities Daily. Li Jin, deputy head of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, said that state-dominated industries with problems of overcapacity, namely construction, electricity and rail would "face large scale mergers and restructuring". The article also notes that rumours of mergers in the construction, energy and telecommunications industry have been circling for a while now. The mergers could help reduce excessive competition between large SOEs, cut waste, encourage the formation of huge conglomerates that could better compete against large foreign firms and also assist in the internationalisation of the Chinese yuan. &nbsp;Below we look at what sectors and stocks could be effected.

CHINA SOE REFORM: Detailed plan due in the next 3 weeks. Potential implications  

Local press has been heavily speculating that we will get a detailed announcement of the SOE reform plan by March, where the number of central SOEs may be reduced from the current 112 to 30-60 over the next&nbsp; several years.&nbsp;It was also speculated overnight that China is considering forging mega-mergers among its big state oil companies, seeking to create new national champions. It was also speculated last week that China was looking at merging China Tel and China Unicom.&nbsp;We had hoped that the focus of SOE reform would be about (a) reducing the state&rsquo;s role in the economy (b) promoting SMEs and private companies (c) improving the efficiency and SOEs and aligning management incentives with minority shareholders.&nbsp;From what we have seen thus far however, it seems the priorities will be set at avoiding internal competition in overseas markets and creating a few large Chinese global champions.

Local press has been heavily speculating that we will get a detailed announcement of the SOE reform plan by March, where the number of central SOEs may be reduced from the current 112 to 30-60 over the next&nbsp; several years.&nbsp;It was also speculated overnight that China is considering forging mega-mergers among its big state oil companies, seeking to create new national champions. It was also speculated last week that China was looking at merging China Tel and China Unicom.&nbsp;We had hoped that the focus of SOE reform would be about (a) reducing the state&rsquo;s role in the economy (b) promoting SMEs and private companies (c) improving the efficiency and SOEs and aligning management incentives with minority shareholders.&nbsp;From what we have seen thus far however, it seems the priorities will be set at avoiding internal competition in overseas markets and creating a few large Chinese global champions.

CHINA SOE REFORM: Thoughts and implications of OIL MERGER rumours

China

China United Network Communications Limited provides a variety of telecommunication services, including GSM and CDMA wireless telecommunication services, international and domestic long distance communication services, data communication and Internet services, as well as paging services.

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China United Network A (600050 CH)

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country...

John-Paul Smith

The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to...

New Street Research

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells...

New Street Research

CHINA SOE REFORM: Detailed plan due in the next 3 weeks. Potential implications

There is a growing expectation that mergers involving huge state-owned conglomerates could be part of China's soon-to-be-announced reforms of...

David Millhouse

CHINA SOE REFORM: Thoughts and implications of OIL MERGER rumours

Local press has been heavily speculating that we will get a detailed announcement of the SOE reform plan by March, where the number of central SOEs...

David Millhouse

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