Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CDF’s 1H23 preliminary results suggest that business recovery remains on track. Voices of bottom-fishing are getting louder as free fall in its share price already erased 50% market cap YTD.</li>
<li>We believe the dynamics have fundamentally changed compared to three years ago when CDF was the stock market darling. Investors need be aware of the anchoring effect in making decisions.</li>
<li>Moderate growth, pressured margin and contracted valuation multiple will be the new reality facing investors of the stock in our view. Wait for better entry point.</li>
</ul>


CDF’s 1H23 preliminary results suggest that business recovery remains on track. Voices of bottom-fishing are getting louder as free fall in its share price already erased 50% market cap YTD.
We believe the dynamics have fundamentally changed compared to three years ago when CDF was the stock market darling. Investors need be aware of the anchoring effect in making decisions.
Moderate growth, pressured margin and contracted valuation multiple will be the new reality facing investors of the stock in our view. Wait for better entry point.


China Tourism Duty Free Corp (601888. CH): Is Now Good Time for Bottom-Fishing?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology led the inflows while Consumer Staples, Financials led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy, China Tourism, Longi Green, Ping An, Zijin Mining, Haitian Flavoring.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology led the inflows while Consumer Staples, Financials led the outflows.
We highlight flows for Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy, China Tourism, Longi Green, Ping An, Zijin Mining, Haitian Flavoring.


Northbound Flows Monthly (June): Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 30th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,252.3 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by materials, consumer discretionary, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Midea, Kunlun Tech, Tcl Technology Group, Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, CATL, Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 30th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,252.3 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by materials, consumer discretionary, industrials.
We highlight flows for Midea, Kunlun Tech, Tcl Technology Group, Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, CATL, Longi Green.


Northbound Flows (Jun 30th): Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, CATL, Longi Green

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 23rd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$43.7 million, led by industrials, information technology, communication services sectors, and offset by materials, financials.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 43 mil last week and highlight flows for China Cssc, Dahua.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 23rd.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$43.7 million, led by industrials, information technology, communication services sectors, and offset by materials, financials.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 43 mil last week and highlight flows for China Cssc, Dahua.


Northbound Flows (Jun 23rd): China Cssc, Dahua

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.0% as of Jun 23rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 4.9ppt week on week, led by information technology, health care, industrials and offset by communication services, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.0% as of Jun 23rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 4.9ppt week on week, led by information technology, health care, industrials and offset by communication services, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 23rd): BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

China Tourism Duty Free Corp (601888. CH): Is Now Good Time for Bottom-Fishing?

Moderate growth, pressured margin and contracted valuation multiple will be the new reality facing investors of the stock in our view. Wait for...

Eric Chen

Northbound Flows Monthly (June): Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for June and highlight flows for Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy, China Tourism,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jun 30th): Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, CATL, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Midea, Kunlun Tech, Tcl Technology Group, Moutai,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jun 23rd): China Cssc, Dahua

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Cssc Holding, Zhejiang Dahua.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 23rd): BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)