'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
NEV IN JAPAN - Japan has a reputation for being the world's leading market for finding listed companies with negative Enterprise Value (NEV). Based on a sample of 842,133 traded months for the 3,826 currently-listed non-financial companies in our universe since 1993, NEV-traded months represent 8%. One thousand and eleven companies have spent at least one month with a negative EV and the average NEV 'period' is just over two years.  The number of NEV companies has varied over the last thirty years, from only one in 1994 (Sanyu Construction 1841 JP) to a peak of 437 in 2009 - 15.4% of the universe. In the last two years, the percentage has doubled to 10% or 366 companies, most of which are small-cap.
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50 BPS -Accordingly, the aggregate (inverted) value of NEV stocks is ¥2.5 trillion or just 50 basis points of the aggregate of the universe. Nevertheless, the current value is at the upper end of the thirty-year range. We have excluded four non-financial companies - Z Holdings, Rakuten, Japan Post, and Sony - as they have financial subsidiaries on their balance sheets.
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NEV 'BUYS' - Brief periods, and occasionally extended, when higher-quality companies dip into NEV are often good long-term buying opportunities as shown above with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol (2181 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP)</a>. 
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NEV 'TRAPS' - Conversely, NEV can persist for years, 'trapping' both value investors and activists, particularly where management remain 'cloth-eared' such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-broadcasting-system" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12981:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP).</a>
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we will review the current large-cap NEV companies, as well the most persistent and the largest peak to trough NEV ranges and make some specific stock recommendations.
</div>


Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
NEV IN JAPAN - Japan has a reputation for being the world's leading market for finding listed companies with negative Enterprise Value (NEV). Based on a sample of 842,133 traded months for the 3,826 currently-listed non-financial companies in our universe since 1993, NEV-traded months represent 8%. One thousand and eleven companies have spent at least one month with a negative EV and the average NEV 'period' is just over two years.  The number of NEV companies has varied over the last thirty years, from only one in 1994 (Sanyu Construction 1841 JP) to a peak of 437 in 2009 - 15.4% of the universe. In the last two years, the percentage has doubled to 10% or 366 companies, most of which are small-cap.

50 BPS -Accordingly, the aggregate (inverted) value of NEV stocks is ¥2.5 trillion or just 50 basis points of the aggregate of the universe. Nevertheless, the current value is at the upper end of the thirty-year range. We have excluded four non-financial companies - Z Holdings, Rakuten, Japan Post, and Sony - as they have financial subsidiaries on their balance sheets.



NEV 'BUYS' - Brief periods, and occasionally extended, when higher-quality companies dip into NEV are often good long-term buying opportunities as shown above with Persol (2181 JP), Toei Animation (4816 JP)  and Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP). 


NEV 'TRAPS' - Conversely, NEV can persist for years, 'trapping' both value investors and activists, particularly where management remain 'cloth-eared' such as Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP) and Toppan Printing (7911 JP).

In the DETAIL section below, we will review the current large-cap NEV companies, as well the most persistent and the largest peak to trough NEV ranges and make some specific stock recommendations.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Looking for Value in Negative Enterprise Value

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<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
DAILY RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS REVIEW - We resume our series of daily Insights reviewing the results and revisions released by Japanese companies in the last 24 hours. Our purpose is to provide brief commentary on notable changes in trends in earnings for individual companies as well as offering an early warning system on any sector and peer group trends. Where relevant, we shall also comment on valuation and relative price outliers using our proprietary models. Our coverage covers all listed companies until the number of reporting companies precludes it. Since our last 'R&amp;R' Insight covering 14th August, both our aggregate Results Score and Revision Score have continued to set new lows, the latter driven mostly by interim revisions. The companies currently reporting are mainly those with January, April, July, and October year-ends. Accordingly, the results reflect the period of greatest COVID-19 economic dislocation.
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SECTOR TIMELINES - The significant Sector changes since our last Insight have been declines in the Commercial Services<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/funai-soken-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4622:1" rel="noopener">Funai Soken (9757 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a>) and Other Commercial Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a>) Sectors.  Only three Sectors -  Internet, Information Technology, and Non-Bank Finance have positive Scores. The Energy Sector has the strongest positive earnings momentum, while Transportation &amp; Logistics has the worst negative trend.
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DAILY STATS - With only nine announcements, our statistics section is brief. All four results scored negatively with an average Results Score of -6.0. The average year-on-year quarterly revenue change was -12%, and OPM declined by 2.7 percentage points. Only one of the five revisions scored positively - the average Forecast/Revision Score was -15.6.
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MEANWHILE - The Bank of Japan appears content with current market levels and has only intervened once in the last twenty trading sessions and for 20% less than the previous sixteen occasions.


Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
DAILY RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS REVIEW - We resume our series of daily Insights reviewing the results and revisions released by Japanese companies in the last 24 hours. Our purpose is to provide brief commentary on notable changes in trends in earnings for individual companies as well as offering an early warning system on any sector and peer group trends. Where relevant, we shall also comment on valuation and relative price outliers using our proprietary models. Our coverage covers all listed companies until the number of reporting companies precludes it. Since our last 'R&amp;R' Insight covering 14th August, both our aggregate Results Score and Revision Score have continued to set new lows, the latter driven mostly by interim revisions. The companies currently reporting are mainly those with January, April, July, and October year-ends. Accordingly, the results reflect the period of greatest COVID-19 economic dislocation.

SECTOR TIMELINES - The significant Sector changes since our last Insight have been declines in the Commercial ServicesFunai Soken (9757 JP) and Recruit (6098 JP)) and Other Commercial Products (Toppan Printing (7911 JP)) Sectors.  Only three Sectors -  Internet, Information Technology, and Non-Bank Finance have positive Scores. The Energy Sector has the strongest positive earnings momentum, while Transportation &amp; Logistics has the worst negative trend.






DAILY STATS - With only nine announcements, our statistics section is brief. All four results scored negatively with an average Results Score of -6.0. The average year-on-year quarterly revenue change was -12%, and OPM declined by 2.7 percentage points. Only one of the five revisions scored positively - the average Forecast/Revision Score was -15.6.

MEANWHILE - The Bank of Japan appears content with current market levels and has only intervened once in the last twenty trading sessions and for 20% less than the previous sixteen occasions. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/01 - Ito En, Ain, Ride On Express

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/689/original/2020-08-20_08-32-43.png?1597879991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153689"></figure><div class="content-caption">All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.</div>BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/694/original/2020-08-20_09-02-34.png?1597881766" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153694"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/695/original/2020-08-20_09-03-07.png?1597881801" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153695"></figure>TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/727/original/2020-08-20_10-57-21.png?1597888653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153727"></figure>DAMN THE TORPEDOES - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.</div>

All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.DAMN THE TORPEDOES - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/350/original/2020-05-28_06-43-04.png?1590615802" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136350"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>ALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11% below the December peak, despite a ten-year low in corporate earnings and the prospect of much worse in that regard in the coming months. Companies have retained staff, and consumer confidence has fallen less than in other developed economies. Production lines were not shut down, resulting in a GFC-like spike in the inventory ratio. The stable Yen will make it harder for exporters to the developing world to clear the stockpiles. Accordingly, the alphabetic 'shape' of Japan's post-COVID recovery will between "V" and "L" and will be more prolonged.SLIM TAILS - We are now in the slim tail of the earnings 'season' with only seven larger caps reporting yesterday of which just two made forecasts for the current year.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/353/original/2020-05-28_07-10-35.png?1590617452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136353"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>INTERNAL DEFICIENCIES - Another 42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka (4578 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> (finally), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toray-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:625:1" rel="noopener">Toray (3402 JP)</a>.  Of the companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥1 trillion, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi (6501 JP)</a> remain after which this series of Insights will be brought to close. That these three companies required an extra month to prepare their accounts suggests severe deficiencies in the internal reporting structures of these companies.

Source • Japan AnalyticsALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11% below the December peak, despite a ten-year low in corporate earnings and the prospect of much worse in that regard in the coming months. Companies have retained staff, and consumer confidence has fallen less than in other developed economies. Production lines were not shut down, resulting in a GFC-like spike in the inventory ratio. The stable Yen will make it harder for exporters to the developing world to clear the stockpiles. Accordingly, the alphabetic 'shape' of Japan's post-COVID recovery will between "V" and "L" and will be more prolonged.SLIM TAILS - We are now in the slim tail of the earnings 'season' with only seven larger caps reporting yesterday of which just two made forecasts for the current year.Source • Japan AnalyticsINTERNAL DEFICIENCIES - Another 42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be Otsuka (4578 JP), Nissan (7201 JP) (finally), and Toray (3402 JP).  Of the companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥1 trillion, only Olympus (7733 JP), Toshiba (6502 JP), and Hitachi (6501 JP) remain after which this series of Insights will be brought to close. That these three companies required an extra month to prepare their accounts suggests severe deficiencies in the internal reporting structures of these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

Japan

Toppan Printing Co., Ltd. is a printing company that provides commercial and publication printing services. The Company also prints securities paper, packaging products, and electronic related products such as photomasks and colorfilters. Toppan Printing also produces inks and operates a text book publication business.

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Toppan Printing (7911 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Looking for Value in Negative Enterprise Value

NEV IN JAPAN - Japan has a reputation for being the world's leading market for finding listed companies with negative Enterprise Value (NEV)....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/01 - Ito En, Ain, Ride On Express

DAILY RESULTS & REVISIONS REVIEW - We resume our series of daily Insights reviewing the results and revisions released by Japanese companies...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

ALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11%...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral...

Vermilion Research

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