Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at -- The company highlighted support for Intel's new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.</li>
<li>Memory Chip Stocks -- Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.</li>
<li>Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.</li>
</ul>


More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at -- The company highlighted support for Intel's new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.
Memory Chip Stocks -- Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.
Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges

<ul>
<li>Our aggregate analysis of the 1Q23 earnings season showed a more balanced beat/miss ratio than 4Q22 likely due to already-downgraded forecasts presenting a lower expectations hurdle.</li>
<li>Semiconductor's inventory situation overall appeared to get worse in 1Q23... Excess inventory digestion is still a few quarters away for many semiconductor companies. Margins fell to the last cycle lows.</li>
<li>Hardware showed small signs of overall inventory improvement. Margins fell further but remained pretty high relative to the previous cycle.</li>
</ul>


Our aggregate analysis of the 1Q23 earnings season showed a more balanced beat/miss ratio than 4Q22 likely due to already-downgraded forecasts presenting a lower expectations hurdle.
Semiconductor's inventory situation overall appeared to get worse in 1Q23... Excess inventory digestion is still a few quarters away for many semiconductor companies. Margins fell to the last cycle lows.
Hardware showed small signs of overall inventory improvement. Margins fell further but remained pretty high relative to the previous cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Insights from 1Q23 Earnings Season Into Where We Are in the Cycle

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai shares have broken out to near-term highs after news flow regarding its investment agreement in Lordstown Motors.</li>
<li>PC makers Acer &amp; Asustek's share prices remain subdued since Nvidia results despite AI's potential to accelerate the PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium went even higher just today; Also, Realtek is suing Mediatek in the U.S., adding to our Long/Short watchlists.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai shares have broken out to near-term highs after news flow regarding its investment agreement in Lordstown Motors.
PC makers Acer &amp; Asustek's share prices remain subdued since Nvidia results despite AI's potential to accelerate the PC upgrade cycle.
TSMC's ADR premium went even higher just today; Also, Realtek is suing Mediatek in the U.S., adding to our Long/Short watchlists.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Breaking Out of Range; Acer/Asustek Subdued Despite PC Upgrade Potential

<ul>
<li>TSMC is back to an 11.8% ADR premium after dropping to 8%... potentially another good Long/Short point.</li>
<li>UMC has flipped to a -0.6% ADR discount, from a 5.6% Premium. If the discount ticks slightly more negative then a good setup level will open up.</li>
<li>ASE, ChipMOS, and CHT spreads have also experienced significant swings since our last dual-listings piece.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is back to an 11.8% ADR premium after dropping to 8%... potentially another good Long/Short point.
UMC has flipped to a -0.6% ADR discount, from a 5.6% Premium. If the discount ticks slightly more negative then a good setup level will open up.
ASE, ChipMOS, and CHT spreads have also experienced significant swings since our last dual-listings piece.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Opens Again for Opportunity; Others Have Swung Substantially

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges

More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at -- The company highlighted support for Intel's new Foundry business, Mediatek, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech: Insights from 1Q23 Earnings Season Into Where We Are in the Cycle

Semiconductor's inventory situation got worse in 1Q23... Excess inventory digestion is still a few quarters away for many semiconductor companies....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Breaking Out of Range; Acer/Asustek Subdued Despite PC Upgrade Potential

TSMC's ADR premium went even higher just today; Also, Realtek is suing Mediatek in the U.S., adding to our Long/Short watchlists.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Opens Again for Opportunity; Others Have Swung Substantially

TSMC's spread has fallen and then spiked again. ASE, ChipMOS, and CHT spreads have also experienced significant swings since our last dual-listings...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

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