Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The current market outlook is expected to improve, although the demand is still down in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>The 2Q24F revenue could potentially increase by a high single digits QoQ at least.</li>
<li>The demand is expected to grow by around 10% YoY in 2024F. This indicates a rebound, although not a strong one.</li>
</ul>


The current market outlook is expected to improve, although the demand is still down in 1Q24F.
The 2Q24F revenue could potentially increase by a high single digits QoQ at least.
The demand is expected to grow by around 10% YoY in 2024F. This indicates a rebound, although not a strong one.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Is Down QoQ; 2024F Demand to Grow by Around 10% YoY.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.</li>
<li>For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.</li>
<li>The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25</li>
</ul>


For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.
For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.
The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25


2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia Vital, Gigabyte Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia Vital, Gigabyte Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 19th): Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia Vital

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD714.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,083mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global Unichip, Hon Hai, Umc, Alchip Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD714.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,083mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global Unichip, Hon Hai, Umc, Alchip Tech.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 19th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global Unichip, Hon Hai

<ul>
<li>The factor of seasonality will be evolved in 1Q24F, but 2Q24F should be picking up most likely.</li>
<li>The Semiconductor cycle shall be reaching the bottom and no more correction, to our expectation.  </li>
<li>The recent changes of Silergy's management didn't affect the reality.  </li>
</ul>


The factor of seasonality will be evolved in 1Q24F, but 2Q24F should be picking up most likely.
The Semiconductor cycle shall be reaching the bottom and no more correction, to our expectation.  
The recent changes of Silergy's management didn't affect the reality.  


Silergy (6415.TT): Nothing Fundamental Changed in Reality; Semiconductor Cycle Shall Be Bottomed Up.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Is Down QoQ; 2024F Demand to Grow by Around 10% YoY.

Despite a decline in demand in 1Q24F, the market outlook is predicted to improve with potential revenue growth of high single digits in 2Q24F and...

Patrick Liao

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 19th): Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia Vital

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 19th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global Unichip, Hon Hai

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Silergy (6415.TT): Nothing Fundamental Changed in Reality; Semiconductor Cycle Shall Be Bottomed Up.

The semiconductor cycle is expected to reach the bottom with seasonality evolving in 1Q24F, but a pickup is likely in 2Q24F. Changes in Silergy's...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Is Down QoQ; 2024F Demand to Grow by Around 10% YoY.

​Despite a decline in demand in 1Q24F, the market outlook is predicted to improve with potential revenue growth of high single digits in 2Q24F and...

Patrick Liao

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 19th): Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia Vital

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Acer, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Faraday Tech, Asia...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 19th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global Unichip, Hon Hai

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Elec, Global...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Silergy (6415.TT): Nothing Fundamental Changed in Reality; Semiconductor Cycle Shall Be Bottomed Up.

​The semiconductor cycle is expected to reach the bottom with seasonality evolving in 1Q24F, but a pickup is likely in 2Q24F. Changes in Silergy's...

Patrick Liao

Despite a decline in demand in 1Q24F, the market outlook is predicted to improve with potential revenue growth of high single digits in 2Q24F and...

The semiconductor cycle is expected to reach the bottom with seasonality evolving in 1Q24F, but a pickup is likely in 2Q24F. Changes in Silergy's...