China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);</li>
<li>The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;</li>
<li>The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in <strong>disfavor</strong> of China. </li>
</ul>


In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 


China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Persistent fabless inventory issues dampen the slope of H2'23 recovery. FY'23 forecast further reduced to a 10% YoY decline</li>
<li>AI-Related hardware will reach 6% of revenues in 2023, a welcome boost but insufficient to counter the negative impact of macro headwinds</li>
<li>TSMC's earnings provides an important read through on the likely results and outlook for the broader semi ecosystem in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


Persistent fabless inventory issues dampen the slope of H2'23 recovery. FY'23 forecast further reduced to a 10% YoY decline
AI-Related hardware will reach 6% of revenues in 2023, a welcome boost but insufficient to counter the negative impact of macro headwinds
TSMC's earnings provides an important read through on the likely results and outlook for the broader semi ecosystem in the coming weeks. 


TSMC. AI Tailwinds No Match For Macro Headwinds

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May</li>
<li>Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all &gt; 30% YoY revenue growth in May</li>
<li>TSMC looking likely to exceed 30% YoY revenue growth in 2024</li>
</ul>


ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May
Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all &gt; 30% YoY revenue growth in May
TSMC looking likely to exceed 30% YoY revenue growth in 2024


Taiwan Semis May '24 Revenue Roundup. Looking Good Across The Board

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan's semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.</li>
<li>Apple is reportedly telling suppliers that its flagship iPhone volumes will be similar to last year.</li>
<li>Hon Hai acquires 50% stake in German auto chassis maker, marking a significant expansion in its EV manufacturing efforts.</li>
</ul>


Japan's semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.
Apple is reportedly telling suppliers that its flagship iPhone volumes will be similar to last year.
Hon Hai acquires 50% stake in German auto chassis maker, marking a significant expansion in its EV manufacturing efforts.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Japan Semi Restrictions Take Effect; Apple IPhone Volumes; Hon Hai Acquisition

<ul>
<li>Intel, AMD &amp; Qualcomm all lined up in support of Microsoft's CoPilot+ PC program during the Computex 2024 keynotes last week.  </li>
<li>While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how &amp; why this is the case</li>
<li>On Friday June 7, reacting to customer feedback, Microsoft announced that their CoPilot+ Recall feature will now become disabled out of the box by default. Ouch!</li>
</ul>


Intel, AMD &amp; Qualcomm all lined up in support of Microsoft's CoPilot+ PC program during the Computex 2024 keynotes last week.  
While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how &amp; why this is the case
On Friday June 7, reacting to customer feedback, Microsoft announced that their CoPilot+ Recall feature will now become disabled out of the box by default. Ouch!


Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC. AI Tailwinds No Match For Macro Headwinds

Fabless inventory issues dampen slope of H2'23 recovery. FY'23 forecast now -10% YoY. TSMC's provides an important read through on the likely...

William Keating

Taiwan Semis May '24 Revenue Roundup. Looking Good Across The Board

ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May. Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all > 30% YoY. TSMC looking likely to hit >30% YoY...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Japan Semi Restrictions Take Effect; Apple IPhone Volumes; Hon Hai Acquisition

Japan's semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's CoPilot+ support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how & why this is the case...

William Keating

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