Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!</li>
<li>Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.</li>
<li>The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.</li>
</ul>


Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!
Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.
The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.


Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.</li>
<li>The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.</li>
<li>Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.
The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.
Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.


Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Lam Research Corporation reported its results for the June 2024 quarter, demonstrating a solid performance with revenue, profitability, and earnings per share exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.</li><li>The quarter saw a significant 22% sequential increase in revenue from its Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), largely driven by its Reliant systems and spare parts sales.</li><li>Furthermore, the company celebrated a key operational milestone with its Malaysian factory shipping its 5,000th chamber, which is a critical step toward achieving long-term cost reduction goals through a more globalized manufacturing footprint.</li></ul>

Lam Research Corporation reported its results for the June 2024 quarter, demonstrating a solid performance with revenue, profitability, and earnings per share exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.The quarter saw a significant 22% sequential increase in revenue from its Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), largely driven by its Reliant systems and spare parts sales.Furthermore, the company celebrated a key operational milestone with its Malaysian factory shipping its 5,000th chamber, which is a critical step toward achieving long-term cost reduction goals through a more globalized manufacturing footprint.

Lam Research Corporation: How Are They Benefitting From Advanced Memory Technologies? - Major Drivers

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000...

Fabricated Knowledge

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Lam Research Corporation: How Are They Benefitting From Advanced Memory Technologies? - Major Drivers

Lam Research Corporation reported its results for the June 2024 quarter, demonstrating a solid performance with revenue, profitability, and...

Baptista Research

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