HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener"></a>With P/B back to the 5-year average of 1.9x but ROE surpassing the last five years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> is our High Conviction pick for 2024.</li>
<li>Lower US interest rates next year will reduce interest expenses as 18.7% of debt is USD-denominated. Potential Rmb appreciation vs. USD may bring significant exchange gain too.</li>
<li>Supportive government policies will further drive domestic traffic. For international traffic, more capacity resumption will power recovery. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> is another profit accelerator.</li>
</ul>



With P/B back to the 5-year average of 1.9x but ROE surpassing the last five years, Air China Ltd (753 HK) is our High Conviction pick for 2024.
Lower US interest rates next year will reduce interest expenses as 18.7% of debt is USD-denominated. Potential Rmb appreciation vs. USD may bring significant exchange gain too.
Supportive government policies will further drive domestic traffic. For international traffic, more capacity resumption will power recovery. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) is another profit accelerator.


2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The number of weekly flights between China and the U.S. will increase again next month, sparking hopes that more supply will put downward pressure on sky-high ticket prices.</li><li>But industry insiders warned that the cost of a ticket won’t drop significantly anytime soon, as low travel demand means American airlines are taking a “cautious” approach to resuming operations.</li><li>From Nov. 9, Chinese carriers will be able to operate 35 weekly round-trips to the U.S., according to a U.S. Department of Transportation order issued Friday. </li></ul>

The number of weekly flights between China and the U.S. will increase again next month, sparking hopes that more supply will put downward pressure on sky-high ticket prices.But industry insiders warned that the cost of a ticket won’t drop significantly anytime soon, as low travel demand means American airlines are taking a “cautious” approach to resuming operations.From Nov. 9, Chinese carriers will be able to operate 35 weekly round-trips to the U.S., according to a U.S. Department of Transportation order issued Friday. 

More China-U.S. Flights Unlikely to Bring Down High Ticket Prices 

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models</li><li>Li Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on Thursday</li><li>China-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration</li></ul>

AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI modelsLi Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on ThursdayChina-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration

CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models 

<ul>
<li>Family / Cover Story: China’s family-run businesses face succession issues </li>
<li>China-U.S. /: China, U.S. ‘working together’ on Biden-Xi meeting at APEC next month</li>
<li>Personnel /: Communist Party names new economic czar</li>
</ul>


Family / Cover Story: China’s family-run businesses face succession issues 
China-U.S. /: China, U.S. ‘working together’ on Biden-Xi meeting at APEC next month
Personnel /: Communist Party names new economic czar


CX Daily: China’s Family-Run Businesses Face Succession Issues 

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

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China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

More China-U.S. Flights Unlikely to Bring Down High Ticket Prices

The number of weekly flights between China and the U. S. will increase again next month, sparking hopes that more supply will put downward...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models

AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models Since Beijing lifted the floodgates for Chinese firms to launch their...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Family-Run Businesses Face Succession Issues

Family / Cover Story: China’s family-run businesses face succession issues China’s economic boom over the past four decades has driven the...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

​Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

More China-U.S. Flights Unlikely to Bring Down High Ticket Prices

The number of weekly flights between China and the U. S. will increase again next month, sparking hopes that more supply will put downward...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models

AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models Since Beijing lifted the floodgates for Chinese firms to launch their...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Family-Run Businesses Face Succession Issues

Family / Cover Story: China’s family-run businesses face succession issues China’s economic boom over the past four decades has driven the...

Caixin Global

Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...