Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:<ul><li>As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. </li><li>Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.</li><li>EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.</li><li>Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.</li></ul>

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by infrastructure, but with housing also now picking up.</li>
<li>Sales of excavators reached a 15-year high - Komatsu reported real-time utilization rates on its machines in China soaring 85% y/y last month</li>
<li>Housing sales by value rose 22.7% y/y for Jan/Feb and investment in real-estate development rose 8.9% in the first two months, versus 6.9% over last year.</li>
<li>Prices seem to be…</li>
</ul>


Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by infrastructure, but with housing also now picking up.
Sales of excavators reached a 15-year high - Komatsu reported real-time utilization rates on its machines in China soaring 85% y/y last month
Housing sales by value rose 22.7% y/y for Jan/Feb and investment in real-estate development rose 8.9% in the first two months, versus 6.9% over last year.
Prices seem to be…


As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul>
<li>We had a breakfast meeting with Ben Bernanke, a man who needs no introduction.</li>
<li>Bernanke is optimistic given a confluence of positive factors (Trumponomics, improved global economy, and higher productivity return to name a few).</li>
<li>We are bullish on financials, infrastructure, technology, and consumer discretionary in Sino-ASEAN region. </li>
</ul>Last Friday, we were invited by Schwab to have a breakfast meeting with Ben Bernanke, former Fed Chairman (two terms: 2006-2010 and 2010-2014 before Janet Yellen…


We had a breakfast meeting with Ben Bernanke, a man who needs no introduction.
Bernanke is optimistic given a confluence of positive factors (Trumponomics, improved global economy, and higher productivity return to name a few).
We are bullish on financials, infrastructure, technology, and consumer discretionary in Sino-ASEAN region. 
Last Friday, we were invited by Schwab to have a breakfast meeting with Ben Bernanke, former Fed Chairman (two terms: 2006-2010 and 2010-2014 before Janet Yellen…

Sino-ASEAN Strategy: What Does a Breakfast With Bernanke Reveal?

<ul><li>We slice and dice the secrets of the Fed policies to derive comparative analysis between Reaganomics and Trumponomics.</li><li>Seven themes emerge from our deep dive.</li><li>We are bullish on financials, technology, and consumer discretionary in Asia-ex Japan region.</li><li>Will China's debt bubble (a.k.a. China's Lehman moment) finally burst?</li></ul>

We slice and dice the secrets of the Fed policies to derive comparative analysis between Reaganomics and Trumponomics.Seven themes emerge from our deep dive.We are bullish on financials, technology, and consumer discretionary in Asia-ex Japan region.Will China's debt bubble (a.k.a. China's Lehman moment) finally burst?

Hedge Hogging Series: What Are the Secrets of the Temple?

United States

SAP SE is a multinational software company.  The Company develops business software, including e-business and enterprise management software, consults on organizational usage of its applications software, and provides training services.  SAP markets its products and services worldwide.

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Sap Se Sponsored Adr (SAP US)

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes: As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases....

Vermilion Research

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by...

Sean Maher

Sino-ASEAN Strategy: What Does a Breakfast With Bernanke Reveal?

We had a breakfast meeting with Ben Bernanke, a man who needs no introduction. Bernanke is optimistic given a confluence of positive factors...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Hedge Hogging Series: What Are the Secrets of the Temple?

We slice and dice the secrets of the Fed policies to derive comparative analysis between Reaganomics and Trumponomics. Seven themes emerge from...

Johannes Salim, CFA

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