Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite a negative share price reaction following its 1Q2025 earnings report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> seems to have entered an earnings upgrade cycle due to improved profitability expectations.</li>
<li>Despite recent share price pressure, due to negative industry readthroughs from peers, Alibaba Group’s near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.</li>
<li>Alibaba Group trades at more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average forward PE ratio, and near the lowest level it has ever been.</li>
</ul>


Despite a negative share price reaction following its 1Q2025 earnings report, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) seems to have entered an earnings upgrade cycle due to improved profitability expectations.
Despite recent share price pressure, due to negative industry readthroughs from peers, Alibaba Group’s near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.
Alibaba Group trades at more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average forward PE ratio, and near the lowest level it has ever been.


Alibaba Group (9988-HK): Positive Technical Analysis Signals

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bearish sentiment in Hong Kong declined during the carry trade sell off.</li>
<li>Low Volatility, High Dividend and Value factors have continue to be profitable strategies in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> all reported solid operating and financial news leading to BUY recommendations.
</li>
</ul>


Bearish sentiment in Hong Kong declined during the carry trade sell off.
Low Volatility, High Dividend and Value factors have continue to be profitable strategies in Hong Kong.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) , Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Giant Biogene (2367 HK) all reported solid operating and financial news leading to BUY recommendations.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$15.2bn this week (now 27wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. Better than the previous month but still low.</li>
<li>Bank net buying, which had spiked the previous week, didn't follow through.</li>
<li>There were three ETFs in the top 15 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week, reversing last week, which reversed the week before's flows.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$15.2bn this week (now 27wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. Better than the previous month but still low.
Bank net buying, which had spiked the previous week, didn't follow through.
There were three ETFs in the top 15 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week, reversing last week, which reversed the week before's flows.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Aug 2024); Tencent the Big Buy Again

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> announced it would launch a Tender Offer when approvals were received, to buy out minorities in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> at ¥4,350/share.</li>
<li>Itochu was buying at that price or higher, in the market, in October 2023. Earnings and book are up since then. Outlook for the Descente China Holdings affiliate? Great. </li>
<li>The valuation transparency is disappointing. Activists would have 3mos or so to push for more. But with friendly holders, they get very close to the minimum anyway.</li>
</ul>


Today, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) announced it would launch a Tender Offer when approvals were received, to buy out minorities in Descente Ltd (8114 JP) at ¥4,350/share.
Itochu was buying at that price or higher, in the market, in October 2023. Earnings and book are up since then. Outlook for the Descente China Holdings affiliate? Great. 
The valuation transparency is disappointing. Activists would have 3mos or so to push for more. But with friendly holders, they get very close to the minimum anyway.


Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) - Buying China on the Cheap

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s</a> Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.</li>
<li>While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.</li>
<li>The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.</li>
</ul>


Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.
While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.
The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.


Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

Alibaba Group (9988-HK): Positive Technical Analysis Signals

In this insight, we perform a technical analysis of Alibaba Group by looking at earnings forecast revision trends, momentum indicators, and current...

Wium Malan, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

Hong Kong markets were resilient during the carry trade global sell off losing less than 2%. Pop Mart and Techtronic posted good results for 1H...

David Mudd

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Aug 2024); Tencent the Big Buy Again

27th week in a row that SOUTHBOUND has been a net buyer of HK-listed shares. And for the second time in a row, Tencent was the top net buy. SB net...

Travis Lundy

Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) - Buying China on the Cheap

Descente started trading above terms when it opened and over the week went just below terms. It is trading far too tight for the arb. But the way...

Travis Lundy

Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

This is background on why Itochu's just announced tender for the remaining shares in Descente is part of a wider brief to become a powerhouse in...

Michael Causton

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