Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.</li>
<li>Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.</li>
<li>New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.</li>
</ul>


ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.
Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.
New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.


ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

<ul>
<li>Significant revenue guidance hike -- TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed 'mid-20's' percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.</li>
<li>Management is low-balling LT margins -- Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.</li>
<li>Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales -- TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.</li>
</ul>


Significant revenue guidance hike -- TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed 'mid-20's' percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.
Management is low-balling LT margins -- Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.
Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales -- TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.


We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +17.9% Premium; Rebounds After Brief Breakdown; Wait for Better Levels</li>
<li>UMC: +1.8% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at Current Level</li>
<li>ASE: +5.5% Premium Represents a Major Breakdown; Can Consider Going Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +17.9% Premium; Rebounds After Brief Breakdown; Wait for Better Levels
UMC: +1.8% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at Current Level
ASE: +5.5% Premium Represents a Major Breakdown; Can Consider Going Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds After Sharp Breakdown; ASE Major Premium Breakdown

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech reported a continued net loss in its latest 2Q24 results; the company's gross margin has rebounded into positive territory but only marginally so.</li>
<li>Server end demand strong, however PC and mobile remain flattish; the company expects some improvemnt in PC and mobile driven by AI trends but conservative on the impact for 2024E.</li>
<li>We believe the Street may need to reduce their 2024E estimates; margin rebound is too small and guidance remains very conservative. We see near-term downside risk for Nanya Tech shares.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech reported a continued net loss in its latest 2Q24 results; the company's gross margin has rebounded into positive territory but only marginally so.
Server end demand strong, however PC and mobile remain flattish; the company expects some improvemnt in PC and mobile driven by AI trends but conservative on the impact for 2024E.
We believe the Street may need to reduce their 2024E estimates; margin rebound is too small and guidance remains very conservative. We see near-term downside risk for Nanya Tech shares.


Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform