Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback <em>again</em>.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out