External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Unicredit

Unicredit Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Unicredit

With nearly 30 analysts, UniCredit Research provides high-quality macroeconomic and financial market analysis to support clients in the development of investment plans, strategic and tactical asset allocation of financial investments, security selection and risk management. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In mid-May, US President Biden announced to quadruple US import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to 100%.</li><li>As recently suggested by EU policymakers such as Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis, the EU is likely to also hike tariffs, but probably less markedly from the current 10%.</li><li>The deadline to inform EV exporters of preliminary findings and whether the EU tariffs will be imposed expires on 5 June, with the deadline to impose provisional tariffs running out on 4 July.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In mid-May, US President Biden announced to quadruple US import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to 100%.As recently suggested by EU policymakers such as Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis, the EU is likely to also hike tariffs, but probably less markedly from the current 10%.The deadline to inform EV exporters of preliminary findings and whether the EU tariffs will be imposed expires on 5 June, with the deadline to impose provisional tariffs running out on 4 July.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chart of the Week - Higher tariffs on Chinese EVs? The EU (consumer) perspective

<ul><li>The eurozone composite PMI for May rose to 52.3 from 51.7, the highest level since May last year.</li><li>The improvement reflects a steady pace of expansion in services activity and an easing in the pace of contraction of manufacturing.</li><li>Taken at face value, the outcome signals a moderate expansion in economic activity mid-way through the second quarter, broadly in line with our forecast for a 0.2% qoq increase in 2Q GDP.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The eurozone composite PMI for May rose to 52.3 from 51.7, the highest level since May last year.The improvement reflects a steady pace of expansion in services activity and an easing in the pace of contraction of manufacturing.Taken at face value, the outcome signals a moderate expansion in economic activity mid-way through the second quarter, broadly in line with our forecast for a 0.2% qoq increase in 2Q GDP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Data Comment - Eurozone PMIs Signal Gradual Recovery and Easing Price Pressure

<ul><li>The US CPI report for April brought some relief for the Fed. Headline consumer inflation decelerated to 0.3% mom from 0.4% mom, with the yoy rate coming down by 0.1pp to 3.4%.</li><li>Looking at the non-core components, the food index was unchanged in April after increasing 0.1% mom in the previous month.</li><li>Interestingly, prices for limited-service meals (i.e. fast food) were up 0.4% mom, a slightly faster pace than the 0.3% mom rise in March. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US CPI report for April brought some relief for the Fed. Headline consumer inflation decelerated to 0.3% mom from 0.4% mom, with the yoy rate coming down by 0.1pp to 3.4%.Looking at the non-core components, the food index was unchanged in April after increasing 0.1% mom in the previous month.Interestingly, prices for limited-service meals (i.e. fast food) were up 0.4% mom, a slightly faster pace than the 0.3% mom rise in March. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Data Comment - US: April CPI Report Brings Relief for the Fed, but Not yet Enough Confidence

<ul><li>Today, the NBR decided to keep monetary-policy rates unchanged, despite the market penciling in a 25bp cut.</li><li>We had expected rate cuts to begin this month, locking in some of the 1pp in easing delivered through excess interbank liquidity, which stood at close to RON 50bn (2.8% of GDP) in April.</li><li>We believe that the NBR will start cutting on 5 July, lowering the policy rate to 6% before year-end.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Today, the NBR decided to keep monetary-policy rates unchanged, despite the market penciling in a 25bp cut.We had expected rate cuts to begin this month, locking in some of the 1pp in easing delivered through excess interbank liquidity, which stood at close to RON 50bn (2.8% of GDP) in April.We believe that the NBR will start cutting on 5 July, lowering the policy rate to 6% before year-end.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EEMEA Macro Flash - Romania: The NBR Postpones the First Cut, Probably to 5 July

<ul><li>Headline inflation remained at 5.0% yoy in April (our forecast: 4.7% yoy) as a decline in the contribution from core inflation and prices for alcohol and tobacco was offset by a higher contribution from energy and food inflation.</li><li>The inflation momentum edged up but remained in the 3.0-4.5% range it has been in since September 2023, with some monthly volatility, indicating moderate but sticky price pressure.</li><li>Momentum for core prices remained sticky, with the contribution of core services increasing and that of goods declining.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Headline inflation remained at 5.0% yoy in April (our forecast: 4.7% yoy) as a decline in the contribution from core inflation and prices for alcohol and tobacco was offset by a higher contribution from energy and food inflation.The inflation momentum edged up but remained in the 3.0-4.5% range it has been in since September 2023, with some monthly volatility, indicating moderate but sticky price pressure.Momentum for core prices remained sticky, with the contribution of core services increasing and that of goods declining.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EEMEA Macro Flash - Serbia: Inflation Getting Close to the Target Range