Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Kajaria Ceramics Limited manufactures glazed and unglazed ceramic tiles. The Company sells its products in India and it also exports them to other countries.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kajaria-ceramics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13916:1" rel="noopener">Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN)</a> is in the limelight after it reported a fraudulent activity in its step-down subsidiary, KGPL. </li>
<li>The funds were embezzled and siphoned by CFO of its subsidiary over a period of two years. Amount involved was INR 200 mn, corresponding to 6-7% of consolidated FY25 PAT. </li>
<li>This raises questions on both internal controls and role of statutory auditors. Also, we note a very high gross PPE turnover ratio in KGPL which leads doubt on revenue recognition/capex.</li>
</ul>



Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN) is in the limelight after it reported a fraudulent activity in its step-down subsidiary, KGPL. 
The funds were embezzled and siphoned by CFO of its subsidiary over a period of two years. Amount involved was INR 200 mn, corresponding to 6-7% of consolidated FY25 PAT. 
This raises questions on both internal controls and role of statutory auditors. Also, we note a very high gross PPE turnover ratio in KGPL which leads doubt on revenue recognition/capex.


Kajaria Ceramics Fraud- Capex and Control Failure

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> acquires 20% of Shriram Finance, gaining capital-light exposure to India’s retail and MSME credit via a secured, high-RoA franchise with deep rural distribution.</li>
<li>Primary capital infusion strengthens <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a>’s balance sheet, supports mid-teens AUM growth, margin expansion and a medium-term structural RoE of ~17–18%.</li>
<li>Earnings impact is modest initially under equity accounting, but compounds over time through growth, co-lending optionality and potential funding-cost compression.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) acquires 20% of Shriram Finance, gaining capital-light exposure to India’s retail and MSME credit via a secured, high-RoA franchise with deep rural distribution.
Primary capital infusion strengthens Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)’s balance sheet, supports mid-teens AUM growth, margin expansion and a medium-term structural RoE of ~17–18%.
Earnings impact is modest initially under equity accounting, but compounds over time through growth, co-lending optionality and potential funding-cost compression.


Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) | Loading up on India

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>The passage of the Sabka Bima Sabki Raksha (Amendment of Insurance Laws) Bill, 2025 marks a significant regulatory inflection point for the sector and could uplift penetration levels in long-run.</li>
<li>Key reforms include 100% FDI, easing operational constraints, strengthening consumer protection, opening up of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)</a> , etc. </li>
<li>Tighter commission regulation and increased competition may pressure intermediary profitability in the near term, posing earnings risk for platforms like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pb-fintech-limited-policybazaar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33470:1" rel="noopener">Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN)</a> (PB Fintech) despite positive long-term sector fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


The passage of the Sabka Bima Sabki Raksha (Amendment of Insurance Laws) Bill, 2025 marks a significant regulatory inflection point for the sector and could uplift penetration levels in long-run.
Key reforms include 100% FDI, easing operational constraints, strengthening consumer protection, opening up of Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) , etc. 
Tighter commission regulation and increased competition may pressure intermediary profitability in the near term, posing earnings risk for platforms like Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN) (PB Fintech) despite positive long-term sector fundamentals.


New Insurance Bill: Insurance for All by 2047

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Cards and Payment Services Private Limited provides credit card services. The Company offers payment products and services in the form of corporate and credit cards with incentive and rewards programs. SBI Cards and Payment Services serves customers in India.

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

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<li>Q2 FY26 showed healthy spend growth but structurally weak profitability, with yield compression, elevated credit costs, and higher OpEx offsetting sharp funding-cost relief</li>
<li>Portfolio mix skewed toward transactors and EMI-led spends drove lower interest-earning assets, capping NIM at 11.2% despite a 69 bps QoQ drop in cost of funds.</li>
<li>Credit costs remain materially above historical levels, with heavy write-offs keeping ROE anchored in the low-teens and limiting near-term earnings recovery.</li>
</ul>


Q2 FY26 showed healthy spend growth but structurally weak profitability, with yield compression, elevated credit costs, and higher OpEx offsetting sharp funding-cost relief
Portfolio mix skewed toward transactors and EMI-led spends drove lower interest-earning assets, capping NIM at 11.2% despite a 69 bps QoQ drop in cost of funds.
Credit costs remain materially above historical levels, with heavy write-offs keeping ROE anchored in the low-teens and limiting near-term earnings recovery.


2026 High Conviction | SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN) | Swimming Troubled Waters

Forensic Accounting

OLA Electric Mobility Limited manufactures electric vehicles. The Company focuses on designing, engineering, and manufacturing of electric scooters and bikes, as well as components like battery packs, motors, and vehicle frames. OLA Electric Mobility serves customers worldwide.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> since its IPO has been under scanner. The management presented a very optimistic narrative in Q1FY26, hoping to turn tides, increase volumes, along with better profitability.</li>
<li>As things stand, volumes continue to hit new lows, market share continues to tumble and the new narrative of Auto EBITDA positive could possibly be an eye wash.</li>
<li>The company’s strategic mismanagement is unmasked and and with internal controls disappearing . Ultimately, the promoter sell off could be a final nail in the coffin.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) since its IPO has been under scanner. The management presented a very optimistic narrative in Q1FY26, hoping to turn tides, increase volumes, along with better profitability.
As things stand, volumes continue to hit new lows, market share continues to tumble and the new narrative of Auto EBITDA positive could possibly be an eye wash.
The company’s strategic mismanagement is unmasked and and with internal controls disappearing . Ultimately, the promoter sell off could be a final nail in the coffin.


2026 High Conviction Idea- Ola Electric: Mismanagement Masterclass