Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups, The Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups

The Adventurous Investor

Introducing private investors to adventurous investment ideas. What does this mean in practice? I’d identify several core themes: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) both in the US and the UK. I’ll look both at the theory underlying these very popular funds as well as the constant stream of new launches. I’ll also feature some model portfolios, with a simple mix of ETFs to suit all tastes. Alternative investment ideas. This is a deliberately wide brief but takes in everything from real asset-backed funds (property and infrastructure for instance) through to music and art…and most things in between. I’ll also journey on adventures overseas and look at alternative emerging and frontier countries and markets that should feature in your portfolio. From Russia to Africa and plenty of exciting places in between. For a UK audience I will also continue to regularly analyze and comment on the listed closed-end fund segment and investment trusts. Last but by no means least I’ll try and make sense of the big macro stories that impact investors. I’ll also weave into this my own slightly idiosyncratic views which I’m afraid mark me out as a liberal/ social-democratic inclined centrist Dad (which is I fear sometimes seen as a tag of shame in these radicalized days).

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>I want to start this Monday's Macro with a very top-down discussion before digging into helpful market data.</li><li>Here’s the thought – we’re entering a potentially dangerous, extended 12-to-15-month period for big macro debates.</li><li>What matters for markets globally is what happens in the US, and what matters in the US is what the US Federal Reserve is thinking.</li></ul>

I want to start this Monday's Macro with a very top-down discussion before digging into helpful market data.Here’s the thought – we’re entering a potentially dangerous, extended 12-to-15-month period for big macro debates.What matters for markets globally is what happens in the US, and what matters in the US is what the US Federal Reserve is thinking.

Monday Macro: Thoughts on the Next 15 Months

<ul><li>In straightforward terms, we are still in a risk-on environment with many analysts and market observers now thinking that US equities – a key momentum driver for all risk assets – are heading towards 6000 at some stage.</li><li>The chart below from analysts at French investment bank SocGen is a useful tool for quickly mapping global, cross-asset class sentiment.</li><li>It measures “<em>market sentiment by looking at the short-term dynamics of six risk-related variables across different asset classes. </em></li></ul>

In straightforward terms, we are still in a risk-on environment with many analysts and market observers now thinking that US equities – a key momentum driver for all risk assets – are heading towards 6000 at some stage.The chart below from analysts at French investment bank SocGen is a useful tool for quickly mapping global, cross-asset class sentiment.It measures “market sentiment by looking at the short-term dynamics of six risk-related variables across different asset classes. 

Weekly note – Bulls are still loose, Japan shifts gear and Europeans start to talk about AI

<ul><li>I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!</li><li>They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.</li><li>I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. </li></ul>

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. 

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

<ul><li>When I first started writing for Money Week, I found myself in a slightly awkward position.</li><li>At the time – this was many years ago – editors Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek were notably bearish on the UK housing market.</li><li>I think it fair to say they were the masters of doom and gloom, not for entirely unfair reasons (you can guess all the rational drivers they focused on).</li></ul>

When I first started writing for Money Week, I found myself in a slightly awkward position.At the time – this was many years ago – editors Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek were notably bearish on the UK housing market.I think it fair to say they were the masters of doom and gloom, not for entirely unfair reasons (you can guess all the rational drivers they focused on).

Monday Macro – a deep dive into housing plus Trump Vs2 and the markets

<ul><li>This week, I’m going to try and combine my three interests: 1. working out what the heck markets might do next,</li><li>2. figuring out how economic growth rates impact stock market returns (surely there must be some relationship or are they entirely unrelated), and</li><li>3. digging into the economic history record books to see what’s worked in the past in investment terms.</li></ul>

This week, I’m going to try and combine my three interests: 1. working out what the heck markets might do next,2. figuring out how economic growth rates impact stock market returns (surely there must be some relationship or are they entirely unrelated), and3. digging into the economic history record books to see what’s worked in the past in investment terms.

Monday Macro – a deep dive into stocks and bonds for the long run