Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.</li><li>China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.</li><li>This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.</li></ul>

Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.

The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.</li><li>Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.</span></li></ul>

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

Crypto

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

<ul><li>My great colleague, Mads Eberhardt, is off on a well-deserved mini-summer break, accordingly handing me the keys to the weekly crypto editorial.</li><li>As Mads is probably currently stuck with the same feeling I have when I hand the iPad to my almost 80-year-old dad, I’ll stick to connecting the dots between liquidity, the recent sell-off in crypto, and the current sell-off in technology.</li><li>Do current developments square, or can we find value trades here?</li></ul>

My great colleague, Mads Eberhardt, is off on a well-deserved mini-summer break, accordingly handing me the keys to the weekly crypto editorial.As Mads is probably currently stuck with the same feeling I have when I hand the iPad to my almost 80-year-old dad, I’ll stick to connecting the dots between liquidity, the recent sell-off in crypto, and the current sell-off in technology.Do current developments square, or can we find value trades here?

Crypto Liquidity Watch: The Current Crypto Versus Tech Correlation Is a Must Watch