Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge</li>
<li>The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend</li>
<li>When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon


<ul>
<li>Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake</li>
<li>The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"</li>
<li>While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake
The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"
While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.


<ul>
<li>Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2</li>
<li>Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory</li>
<li>At the first sign of softness, Nvidia's customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders</li>
</ul>


Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2
Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory
At the first sign of softness, Nvidia's customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders
