Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>WTI futures dropped 4.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, pressured by a bleak demand outlook, a rising dollar, and weak economic data from China.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.00 from 0.66 (08/Nov) last week, as call volume dropped by 57.3% WoW and put volume fell by 35.4%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR climbed to 0.86 from 0.77 (08/Nov) last week. Call OI fell by 37.9% WoW, while put OI fell by 29.9%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures dropped 4.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, pressured by a bleak demand outlook, a rising dollar, and weak economic data from China.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.00 from 0.66 (08/Nov) last week, as call volume dropped by 57.3% WoW and put volume fell by 35.4%.  
WTI OI PCR climbed to 0.86 from 0.77 (08/Nov) last week. Call OI fell by 37.9% WoW, while put OI fell by 29.9%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/46] WTI Dropped Amid Weak Demand Outlook and Strong Dollar

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul>
<li>US natural gas prices rose 5.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, buoyed by forecasts of cooler weather, rising US LNG exports, and declining production.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio sharply rose to 1.08 from 0.65 (08/Nov) the previous week as put volumes rose by 53.5% WoW, while call volumes fell by 7.0%. </li>
<li>Call OI increased for December, January, February, and March expirations, while put OI was substantial for November, April, May, June, and July contracts.</li>
</ul>


US natural gas prices rose 5.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, buoyed by forecasts of cooler weather, rising US LNG exports, and declining production.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio sharply rose to 1.08 from 0.65 (08/Nov) the previous week as put volumes rose by 53.5% WoW, while call volumes fell by 7.0%. 
Call OI increased for December, January, February, and March expirations, while put OI was substantial for November, April, May, June, and July contracts.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/46] Henry Hub Prices Increased as Demand Outlook Improved

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures dropped to USD 96.71/ton, down USD 5.49/ton, hitting a low of USD 96.30/ton amid pressure from declining housing prices and industrial output in China.</li>
<li>Chinese portside inventories increased by 120k tons WoW to 148.51m tons last week, while average daily port discharge volumes rose by 131k tons WoW to 3.18m tons.</li>
<li>Despite weak economic data from China, SGX Iron Ore Futures may rebound in November-December as pre-Lunar New Year restocking boosts steel demand.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures dropped to USD 96.71/ton, down USD 5.49/ton, hitting a low of USD 96.30/ton amid pressure from declining housing prices and industrial output in China.
Chinese portside inventories increased by 120k tons WoW to 148.51m tons last week, while average daily port discharge volumes rose by 131k tons WoW to 3.18m tons.
Despite weak economic data from China, SGX Iron Ore Futures may rebound in November-December as pre-Lunar New Year restocking boosts steel demand.


IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/46]: IO to Rise on Seasonality

<ul>
<li>OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.</li>
<li>Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.</li>
<li>The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.


OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.</li>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.


US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks