Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic variables, in line with our house view assumptions.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued (with upside of 8.4% to the current share price); however, this is offset by slow earnings growth prospects and a neutral tactical view.</li><li>BBL’s 2Q24 net profit beat our forecast by 17% at Bt11.8bn, growing 4.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic variables, in line with our house view assumptions.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued (with upside of 8.4% to the current share price); however, this is offset by slow earnings growth prospects and a neutral tactical view.BBL’s 2Q24 net profit beat our forecast by 17% at Bt11.8bn, growing 4.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.

Bangkok Bank - Upbeat 2Q24 Earnings but Weaker Asset Quality

Sansiri Public Company Limited develops real estate projects for sales and rentals.  Its projects include resort condominiums, residential and office buildings.  The Company also provides property and project management services.

<ul><li>SIRI looks attractive in terms of the valuation. The current share price implies upside of 17% to our 12M fair value of Bt2.03, based on a required return of 13.8%.</li><li>It is expected that SIRI will pay an interim DPS of Bt0.08 for the 1H24E performance, representing a 4.6% yield for the period.</li><li>The EPS growth prospects are limited due to a higher capital following the exercising of warrants. </li></ul>

SIRI looks attractive in terms of the valuation. The current share price implies upside of 17% to our 12M fair value of Bt2.03, based on a required return of 13.8%.It is expected that SIRI will pay an interim DPS of Bt0.08 for the 1H24E performance, representing a 4.6% yield for the period.The EPS growth prospects are limited due to a higher capital following the exercising of warrants. 

SANSIRI - Accelerating Earnings Momentum in 2Q24E

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

<ul><li>We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">report on June 5, 2024. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The long-term earnings prospects remain </span>strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited operates as a commercial lending company. The Company provides car title, personal, agricultural vehicle, land title, and other loan products. Muangthai Capital serves customers in Thailand.

<ul><li>We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt49.08 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt43.48 previously) following the adjustments to the house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 21.9%.</li><li>The long-term earnings growth prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is limited.</li></ul>

We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt49.08 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt43.48 previously) following the adjustments to the house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 21.9%.The long-term earnings growth prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is limited.

Muangthai Capital - Expect 2Q24E NP Growth YoY and QoQ Due to Asset Quality Control

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited operates as a food manufacturing company. The Company offers snack such as jelly, fruit juice, fish, squid, herb drinks. Srinanaporn Marketing serves customers worldwide.

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited (SNNP TB)

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited

<ul><li>We maintain a neutral view on SNNP's 2Q24E earnings forecast, with some concerns about the year's earnings outlook if sales fall short of expectations, which could result in 10% downside risk to our 2024E forecast.</li><li>However, the recent decline in the share price has already factored in the sales outlook. Our valuation metrics suggest very limited tactical downside risk.</li><li>The fundamental aspect has been upgraded to a buy due to strong long-term earnings prospects. </li></ul>

We maintain a neutral view on SNNP's 2Q24E earnings forecast, with some concerns about the year's earnings outlook if sales fall short of expectations, which could result in 10% downside risk to our 2024E forecast.However, the recent decline in the share price has already factored in the sales outlook. Our valuation metrics suggest very limited tactical downside risk.The fundamental aspect has been upgraded to a buy due to strong long-term earnings prospects. 

Srinanaporn Marketing - 2Q24E Earnings Expected to Increase 4% YoY and QoQ