Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Resilient activity data does not align with tight policy rates, suggesting deep cuts may not be necessary. Despite the resilience and loosening conditions enjoyed by equities, they should not occur simultaneously. The proximity of equities and GBP to their peaks creates an unattractive asymmetry.</li><li>Next week, stretched market pricing may overshadow other factors due to a sparse data calendar and widespread late summer holidays.</li><li>The main event to look out for is the Flash EA inflation for August, with forecasts indicating a potential renewed slowdown in headline figures, aligning closely with the consensus.</li></ul>

Resilient activity data does not align with tight policy rates, suggesting deep cuts may not be necessary. Despite the resilience and loosening conditions enjoyed by equities, they should not occur simultaneously. The proximity of equities and GBP to their peaks creates an unattractive asymmetry.Next week, stretched market pricing may overshadow other factors due to a sparse data calendar and widespread late summer holidays.The main event to look out for is the Flash EA inflation for August, with forecasts indicating a potential renewed slowdown in headline figures, aligning closely with the consensus.

<ul><li>Broad increases in the flash services PMIs reinforced the signal that global activity remains resilient enough not to require forceful monetary easing.</li><li>Residual seasonality hasn’t appeared in the PMIs again this summer, but it pollutes some unemployment data. A slight majority of countries have a higher UR than a year ago.</li><li>Softening labour market trends from a relatively neutral cyclical position are consistent with gradual and limited rate cuts, even if they need reversing without a recession.</li></ul><p></p>

Broad increases in the flash services PMIs reinforced the signal that global activity remains resilient enough not to require forceful monetary easing.Residual seasonality hasn’t appeared in the PMIs again this summer, but it pollutes some unemployment data. A slight majority of countries have a higher UR than a year ago.Softening labour market trends from a relatively neutral cyclical position are consistent with gradual and limited rate cuts, even if they need reversing without a recession.

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

<ul><li>The Bank of Korea maintained the Policy Rate at 3.5%, consistent with the consensus, due to the need for further confirmation of inflation trends and concerns over financial stability, particularly in the housing and foreign exchange markets.</li><li>Global economic uncertainty, including fluctuations in US monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks, will significantly influence the timing of future interest rate decisions.</li><li>Domestically, the Bank of Korea is balancing moderate growth, driven by strong exports, with the risks posed by rising household debt and housing prices, suggesting a cautious approach to any potential rate cuts.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Bank of Korea maintained the Policy Rate at 3.5%, consistent with the consensus, due to the need for further confirmation of inflation trends and concerns over financial stability, particularly in the housing and foreign exchange markets.Global economic uncertainty, including fluctuations in US monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks, will significantly influence the timing of future interest rate decisions.Domestically, the Bank of Korea is balancing moderate growth, driven by strong exports, with the risks posed by rising household debt and housing prices, suggesting a cautious approach to any potential rate cuts.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Korea Policy Rate 3.5% (consensus 3.5%) in Aug-24

<ul><li>Bank Indonesia’s decision to keep the BI-Rate steady at 6.25% aligns with expectations, reinforcing a pro-stability stance to manage inflation and Rupiah stability amid global uncertainties.</li><li>The easing of global financial market uncertainty amid solid domestic growth influences interest rate decisions that focus on balancing inflation control and sustaining economic momentum.</li><li>Bank Indonesia’s commitment to Rupiah stabilization and maintaining inflation within the target range remains central to its monetary policy, supported by effective interventions and optimized monetary operations.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

Bank Indonesia’s decision to keep the BI-Rate steady at 6.25% aligns with expectations, reinforcing a pro-stability stance to manage inflation and Rupiah stability amid global uncertainties.The easing of global financial market uncertainty amid solid domestic growth influences interest rate decisions that focus on balancing inflation control and sustaining economic momentum.Bank Indonesia’s commitment to Rupiah stabilization and maintaining inflation within the target range remains central to its monetary policy, supported by effective interventions and optimized monetary operations.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Indonesia Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.25%) in Aug-24

<ul><li>The Bank of Thailand maintained the Policy Rate at 2.5% by a 6 to 1 vote, reflecting confidence that current monetary policy is appropriate for balancing economic recovery and inflation management despite underlying structural challenges.</li><li>Economic growth is driven by tourism and domestic demand. Uneven recovery across sectors and structural headwinds in exports and manufacturing necessitate close monitoring of risks to private investment and consumption.</li><li>Inflation is expected to return to the target range by the end of 2024, with concerns over credit quality deterioration in SMEs and households prompting the Committee to support targeted measures aimed at maintaining financial stability.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Bank of Thailand maintained the Policy Rate at 2.5% by a 6 to 1 vote, reflecting confidence that current monetary policy is appropriate for balancing economic recovery and inflation management despite underlying structural challenges.Economic growth is driven by tourism and domestic demand. Uneven recovery across sectors and structural headwinds in exports and manufacturing necessitate close monitoring of risks to private investment and consumption.Inflation is expected to return to the target range by the end of 2024, with concerns over credit quality deterioration in SMEs and households prompting the Committee to support targeted measures aimed at maintaining financial stability.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.5%) in Aug-24