Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kyoto Financial Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

Kyoto Financial Group, Inc. offers financial services. The Company provides commodity securities transaction, securities investment, trust, credit guarantee, banking related services, and other services. Kyoto Financial Group also operates real estate management and leasing, economic research, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>Kyoto Financial’s stakes in three key listed Japanese corporates are valued at over 85% of its market capitalization with its total equity holdings accounting for 130%+ of its market capitalization</li>
<li>Kyoto management intends to retain the bulk of the bank’s equity holdings, opposing the growing trend for Japanese listed companies to unwind crossholdings; management will review this policy in November</li>
<li>In the near term, we see no major catalyst for Kyoto to accelerate its equity holdings unwind and so, combined with its underwhelming fundamentals, we are negative on Kyoto Financial</li>
</ul>


Kyoto Financial’s stakes in three key listed Japanese corporates are valued at over 85% of its market capitalization with its total equity holdings accounting for 130%+ of its market capitalization
Kyoto management intends to retain the bulk of the bank’s equity holdings, opposing the growing trend for Japanese listed companies to unwind crossholdings; management will review this policy in November
In the near term, we see no major catalyst for Kyoto to accelerate its equity holdings unwind and so, combined with its underwhelming fundamentals, we are negative on Kyoto Financial


Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Limited Shareholdings Unwind, for Now

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

<ul>
<li>Since Elliott Management emerged as a shareholder in SoftBank group last month, the share price has rallied sharply, largely driven by the further appreciation of the Arm Holding share price</li>
<li>SoftBank management is currently focused on growing its Gen AI investment portfolio and appears to have shelved share buybacks for now, which is likely to disappoint minority shareholders</li>
<li>Despite the above challenges and the risk of de-rating at Arm, we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 54%+ discount to the estimated NAV</li>
</ul>


Since Elliott Management emerged as a shareholder in SoftBank group last month, the share price has rallied sharply, largely driven by the further appreciation of the Arm Holding share price
SoftBank management is currently focused on growing its Gen AI investment portfolio and appears to have shelved share buybacks for now, which is likely to disappoint minority shareholders
Despite the above challenges and the risk of de-rating at Arm, we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 54%+ discount to the estimated NAV


Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive

Private Capital Markets

Revolut Limited / Private Capital Markets

Revolut Limited designs and develops application software. The Company offers money transfers, vaults, budgeting, cryptocurrency, mobile phone, and medical insurance. Revolut serves customers in the United Kingdom.

<ul>
<li>Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn</li>
<li>We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank</li>
<li>Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence</li>
</ul>


Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn
We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank
Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence


Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Banco del Bajio S.A. provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgages loans, saving, investment option, pension advice, and electronic billing services. Banco del Bajio operates in Mexico.

<ul>
<li>We review Citibank’s upcoming division of CitiBanamex and the forthcoming legacy Banamex IPO; given the market’s recent wobbles, we shave down the Banamex IPO valuation</li>
<li>Sector trends to January show continued loan growth; although funding costs have not risen to April, credit costs are worsening, with some evidence of rising NPL ratios</li>
<li>BanBajio generates an ROE of 27%, whilst well capitalized and on very modest multiples; we are now neutral on Banorte, from being cautious, due to its less demanding valuation</li>
</ul>


We review Citibank’s upcoming division of CitiBanamex and the forthcoming legacy Banamex IPO; given the market’s recent wobbles, we shave down the Banamex IPO valuation
Sector trends to January show continued loan growth; although funding costs have not risen to April, credit costs are worsening, with some evidence of rising NPL ratios
BanBajio generates an ROE of 27%, whilst well capitalized and on very modest multiples; we are now neutral on Banorte, from being cautious, due to its less demanding valuation


Banamex Update and Mexican Banks’ April Data – First Look at Early 2Q 2024 Trends

Visa Inc. operates a retail electronic payments network and manages global financial services.  The Company also offers global commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses and government entities.

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO valuations based on recent share transactions; Indian payments company Pine Labs is also reported to be looking to IPO</li>
<li>Our 2Q24 recommended shares performance was very mixed, with it being a mainly challenging quarter for long investors in payment companies</li>
<li>We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and Shift4 as buys, replacing PayPal with European value play Nexi; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO valuations based on recent share transactions; Indian payments company Pine Labs is also reported to be looking to IPO
Our 2Q24 recommended shares performance was very mixed, with it being a mainly challenging quarter for long investors in payment companies
We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and Shift4 as buys, replacing PayPal with European value play Nexi; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Updated Sector Overview and Potential IPOs