Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A Trump victory and Republicans clean sweep is now widely expected with results so far, which has prompted knee jerk reaction in markets with U.S. Treasury yields and USD higher. </li>
<li>Policy uncertainty is high over tariffs, though the 2017 tax cuts will likely be renewed with some additional tax cuts elsewhere.  </li>
<li>Tackling immigration will also be a policy priority, but the scale of action is unclear. </li>
</ul>


A Trump victory and Republicans clean sweep is now widely expected with results so far, which has prompted knee jerk reaction in markets with U.S. Treasury yields and USD higher. 
Policy uncertainty is high over tariffs, though the 2017 tax cuts will likely be renewed with some additional tax cuts elsewhere.  
Tackling immigration will also be a policy priority, but the scale of action is unclear. 


<ul>
<li>We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy.</li>
<li>Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy.</li>
<li>The latter will be softer than September’s 0.31% but matching August’s 0.28%. The 0.3% gains ex food and energy in both August and September came as modest disappointments.</li>
</ul>


We expect October’s CPI to increase by 0.3% overall for a fourth straight month with a third straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy.
Before rounding we expect a 0.20% rise overall, slightly stronger than the three preceding outcomes, with a 0.28% rise ex food and energy.
The latter will be softer than September’s 0.31% but matching August’s 0.28%. The 0.3% gains ex food and energy in both August and September came as modest disappointments.


Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September

<ul>
<li>China most likely faces aggressive disinflation rather than Japan style deflation that depress GDP. China is a middle income country with incomplete urbanization/consumption</li>
<li>Support for households remains light, while production exceeds consumption momentum. </li>
<li>This should see disinflation into 2025 and we forecast +0.6% for CPI inflation. </li>
</ul>


China most likely faces aggressive disinflation rather than Japan style deflation that depress GDP. China is a middle income country with incomplete urbanization/consumption
Support for households remains light, while production exceeds consumption momentum. 
This should see disinflation into 2025 and we forecast +0.6% for CPI inflation. 


<ul>
<li>October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes.</li>
<li>The workweek is holding up and average hourly earnings are stronger than expected with a 0.4% rise but with negative revisions.</li>
<li>Unemployment is unchanged at 4.1%, with both employment and the labor force falling, both probably depressed by weather.</li>
</ul>


October’s non-farm payroll is well below consensus with a 12k increase with weakness impacted by a strike at Boeing and hurricanes.
The workweek is holding up and average hourly earnings are stronger than expected with a 0.4% rise but with negative revisions.
Unemployment is unchanged at 4.1%, with both employment and the labor force falling, both probably depressed by weather.


U.S. October Employment - Special Factors Add to Weakness

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The U.S. election remains very close though a win for former President Donald Trump appears slightly more likely than one for Vice President Kamala Harris. </li>
<li>The race for control of the House is also close, though here a Democrat majority looks marginally more likely.</li>
<li>For the Senate, a Republican majority is clearly the more likely outcome, but far from assured.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. election remains very close though a win for former President Donald Trump appears slightly more likely than one for Vice President Kamala Harris. 
The race for control of the House is also close, though here a Democrat majority looks marginally more likely.
For the Senate, a Republican majority is clearly the more likely outcome, but far from assured.


U.S. Election Scenarios and Post-Election Policy Risks