Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>I recently listened to one of my favorite investing podcasts, <a href="https://contrariancashflows.wordpress.com/?action=user_content_redirect&amp;uuid=678e4525cb04028d7d36f45f107a455eceeaca77cc3e4f0f52db3ddb79f7937b&amp;blog_id=225373572&amp;post_id=1082&amp;user_id=249346012&amp;subs_id=717993283&amp;signature=2ed97a3dad73662230efea1e09623341&amp;email_name=new-post&amp;user_email=researchfeed@smartkarma.com&amp;encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlaW52ZXN0b3JzcG9kY2FzdC5jb20v" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://contrariancashflows.wordpress.com?action%3Duser_content_redirect%26uuid%3D678e4525cb04028d7d36f45f107a455eceeaca77cc3e4f0f52db3ddb79f7937b%26blog_id%3D225373572%26post_id%3D1082%26user_id%3D249346012%26subs_id%3D717993283%26signature%3D2ed97a3dad73662230efea1e09623341%26email_name%3Dnew-post%26user_email%3Dresearchfeed@smartkarma.com%26encoded_url%3DaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlaW52ZXN0b3JzcG9kY2FzdC5jb20v&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1731052058825000&amp;usg=AOvVaw19h6-lvqaq67BxXcn22znq" rel="noopener">The Investors Podcast</a>. In this episode, host Clay Finck interviewed finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder from Arizona State University about his research paper, Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?.'</li>
<li>In both the podcast and the paper, Prof. Bessembinder examines the distribution of long-term returns for individual stocks and their contribution to overall stock market performance.</li>
<li>His research revealed a striking finding: approximately 95% of all publicly listed companies over the past century have underperformed Treasury Bills.</li>
</ul>


I recently listened to one of my favorite investing podcasts, The Investors Podcast. In this episode, host Clay Finck interviewed finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder from Arizona State University about his research paper, Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?.'
In both the podcast and the paper, Prof. Bessembinder examines the distribution of long-term returns for individual stocks and their contribution to overall stock market performance.
His research revealed a striking finding: approximately 95% of all publicly listed companies over the past century have underperformed Treasury Bills.


Equity Bottom-Up

Mattr Corp. is an energy and infrastructure technology company. The Company specializes in product, services, and solutions utilized in oil and gas, water and wastewater, fuel, transportation, and industrial applications, as well as designs, builds, protects, and manages critical assets. Mattr serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>In my <a href="https://contrariancashflows.wordpress.com/?action=user_content_redirect&amp;uuid=e742314996e7c2d14e46663ffcea8911088dbbfb7dfe058838e1cecb8a9119db&amp;blog_id=225373572&amp;post_id=1043&amp;user_id=249346012&amp;subs_id=717993283&amp;signature=c7df5dc1a93c94e6878b3b8fcd45ba31&amp;email_name=new-post&amp;user_email=researchfeed@smartkarma.com&amp;encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly9jb250cmFyaWFuY2FzaGZsb3dzLmNvbS8yMDI0LzEwLzAxL3BvcnRmb2xpby11cGRhdGUtc2VwdGVtYmVyLTIwMjQv" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://contrariancashflows.wordpress.com?action%3Duser_content_redirect%26uuid%3De742314996e7c2d14e46663ffcea8911088dbbfb7dfe058838e1cecb8a9119db%26blog_id%3D225373572%26post_id%3D1043%26user_id%3D249346012%26subs_id%3D717993283%26signature%3Dc7df5dc1a93c94e6878b3b8fcd45ba31%26email_name%3Dnew-post%26user_email%3Dresearchfeed@smartkarma.com%26encoded_url%3DaHR0cHM6Ly9jb250cmFyaWFuY2FzaGZsb3dzLmNvbS8yMDI0LzEwLzAxL3BvcnRmb2xpby11cGRhdGUtc2VwdGVtYmVyLTIwMjQv&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1728719913725000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3EAmMz1w7qMXy6_d6UGR91" rel="noopener">latest portfolio update</a>, I discussed the potential of investing in cyclical businesses and how shifts in a company’s business model or balance sheet can often go unnoticed by the market, creating compelling investment opportunities.</li><li>Today, I present Mattr Corp, a company that not only revamped its business model and balance sheet without receiving due recognition but also strategically repositioned itself within new end markets. This transformation aligns perfectly with all three of my key criteria for identifying attractive investments in cyclical stocks.</li><li>Mattr Corp., a Canadian industrial conglomerate, is undergoing a strategic transformation into an advanced engineering company by leveraging its extensive expertise and decades of experience in materials science for industrial applications.</li></ul>

In my latest portfolio update, I discussed the potential of investing in cyclical businesses and how shifts in a company’s business model or balance sheet can often go unnoticed by the market, creating compelling investment opportunities.Today, I present Mattr Corp, a company that not only revamped its business model and balance sheet without receiving due recognition but also strategically repositioned itself within new end markets. This transformation aligns perfectly with all three of my key criteria for identifying attractive investments in cyclical stocks.Mattr Corp., a Canadian industrial conglomerate, is undergoing a strategic transformation into an advanced engineering company by leveraging its extensive expertise and decades of experience in materials science for industrial applications.

Mattr Corp: How to Transform an Industrial Business Through Rational Capital Allocation

NVR, Inc. builds and markets homes and conducts mortgage banking activities. The Company builds single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and other tradenames.  NVR provides a number of mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers and to other customers through its mortgage banking operations.

<ul>
<li>This month, I had the privilege of attending an investment conference, where I engaged with many successful value investors and independent thinkers.</li>
<li>During one conversation, an investor jokingly remarked that everyone seems to have shifted toward "quality growth investing," while he and Mr. Robotti appear to be among the few who still favor cyclical stocks, such as Tidewater Inc.</li>
<li>Although I don't generally shy away from cyclical stocks, I recognize the immense challenge of navigating the capital cycle by investing in companies that seem on the brink of failure.</li>
</ul>


This month, I had the privilege of attending an investment conference, where I engaged with many successful value investors and independent thinkers.
During one conversation, an investor jokingly remarked that everyone seems to have shifted toward "quality growth investing," while he and Mr. Robotti appear to be among the few who still favor cyclical stocks, such as Tidewater Inc.
Although I don't generally shy away from cyclical stocks, I recognize the immense challenge of navigating the capital cycle by investing in companies that seem on the brink of failure.


EROAD Limited operates as a transport technology and services company. EROAD provides an electronic solution to manage and pay Road User Charges, support regulatory compliance and provide commercial services to the heavy vehicle industry.

<ul><li>Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding, albeit challenging, strategies. The key lies in identifying companies where management's execution and the business's unit economics suggest a clear path to future profitability.</li><li>Since most professional investors covering these stocks tend to focus heavily on quantitative metrics, a company's stock price can experience significant upward momentum once profitability is achieved. I believe EROAD Ltd. represents exactly this type of opportunity.</li><li>EROAD is a New Zealand-based vertical market software (VMS) company that operates within the telematics markets of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.</li></ul>

Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding, albeit challenging, strategies. The key lies in identifying companies where management's execution and the business's unit economics suggest a clear path to future profitability.Since most professional investors covering these stocks tend to focus heavily on quantitative metrics, a company's stock price can experience significant upward momentum once profitability is achieved. I believe EROAD Ltd. represents exactly this type of opportunity.EROAD is a New Zealand-based vertical market software (VMS) company that operates within the telematics markets of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.

EROAD: A Resilient VMS Business at Free Cashflow Inflection, Trading at Just 1.4x EV/Sales

Norbit ASA provides technology solutions. The Company offers forward looking and bathymetric sonars, connectivity devices for satellite-based truck tolling, short range communication technology to intelligent traffic systems, and GNSS and GSM antennas. Norbit serves customers globally.

<ul><li>Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! This month, I enjoyed a long vacation with my family, spending three weeks traveling through Italy by car.</li><li>We began our journey from our home near Munich, which allowed us to traverse the entire country from north to south and back again.</li><li>We entered Italy through South Tyrol and drove down to Tuscany, where we spent a week. Afterward, we continued our journey all the way down to Puglia, where we stayed for ten days before making the return trip.</li></ul>

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! This month, I enjoyed a long vacation with my family, spending three weeks traveling through Italy by car.We began our journey from our home near Munich, which allowed us to traverse the entire country from north to south and back again.We entered Italy through South Tyrol and drove down to Tuscany, where we spent a week. Afterward, we continued our journey all the way down to Puglia, where we stayed for ten days before making the return trip.