Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The tentative green shoots in consumer and business demand seen in the latest data are likely due to one-off factors.  A sustained recovery is still some distance away. </li>
<li>The fundamental underpinnings of domestic demand remain shaky, given continued weakness in the labour and property markets and external uncertainties. </li>
<li>Moreover, with the trade war likely to be escalated by the next US administration, the Chinese economy may suffer material damage from a more hostile external environment. </li>
</ul>


The tentative green shoots in consumer and business demand seen in the latest data are likely due to one-off factors.  A sustained recovery is still some distance away. 
The fundamental underpinnings of domestic demand remain shaky, given continued weakness in the labour and property markets and external uncertainties. 
Moreover, with the trade war likely to be escalated by the next US administration, the Chinese economy may suffer material damage from a more hostile external environment. 


China Economics: Don't Celebrate October’s Uptick Just Yet

<ul>
<li>Asia Pacific economies benefit from a global order which preserves their sovereignty and allows them to prosper.  Trump’s return puts some of these benefits at risk. </li>
<li>Washington under Trump will continue to pursue its rivalry with Beijing, but Trump’s responses to crises in Ukraine and the Middle East could leave instability in its wake.  =</li>
<li>Washington’s allies in Asia will start “Trump-proofing” their defence strategies.  Countries will hedge between the US and China while ramping up military spending.  </li>
</ul>


Asia Pacific economies benefit from a global order which preserves their sovereignty and allows them to prosper.  Trump’s return puts some of these benefits at risk. 
Washington under Trump will continue to pursue its rivalry with Beijing, but Trump’s responses to crises in Ukraine and the Middle East could leave instability in its wake.  =
Washington’s allies in Asia will start “Trump-proofing” their defence strategies.  Countries will hedge between the US and China while ramping up military spending.  


Asia Geopolitics: Dealing with a More Trumpian World

<ul>
<li>Leading indicators of trade volumes in the Asia Pacific region are flashing warning signs as economic and geopolitical headwinds start to grow. </li>
<li>Export orders have been contracting as firms are defensive over the demand outlook. The pivotal electronics and automobile sectors are also facing speedbumps. </li>
<li>While data on goods movements and raw materials are still relative bright spots, the region may have to be braced for a premature tapering in the external sector recovery. </li>
</ul>


Leading indicators of trade volumes in the Asia Pacific region are flashing warning signs as economic and geopolitical headwinds start to grow. 
Export orders have been contracting as firms are defensive over the demand outlook. The pivotal electronics and automobile sectors are also facing speedbumps. 
While data on goods movements and raw materials are still relative bright spots, the region may have to be braced for a premature tapering in the external sector recovery. 


Regional Economics: Trouble Ahead for Asian Trade?

<ul>
<li>Following his inauguration as Indonesia's new president, Prabowo Subianto’s early signals gave little comfort that he has changed his controversial and nationalistic economic and political worldview. </li>
<li>While the return of several Widodo-era officials has calmed short-term market anxieties, divisions within the cabinet over crucial areas of economic policy remain. </li>
<li>Prabowo’s all-of-parliament coalition is actually a sign that he does not trust many of his nominal allies.  Intra-elite intrigue and infighting are expected to continue. </li>
</ul>


Following his inauguration as Indonesia's new president, Prabowo Subianto’s early signals gave little comfort that he has changed his controversial and nationalistic economic and political worldview. 
While the return of several Widodo-era officials has calmed short-term market anxieties, divisions within the cabinet over crucial areas of economic policy remain. 
Prabowo’s all-of-parliament coalition is actually a sign that he does not trust many of his nominal allies.  Intra-elite intrigue and infighting are expected to continue. 


Indonesia: Not so Smooth Sailing for Prabowo Presidency

<ul>
<li>Malaysia's budget saw the government continue to make minor tweaks to tax and spending, even as the data show that fiscal consolidation is slowing down. </li>
<li>The proposed tax-raising measures are too narrowly targeted, limiting their scope to expanding the tax base and raising substantial revenues. </li>
<li>Without more decisive action, the government risks missing its deficit and debt targets, which it set under the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. </li>
</ul>


Malaysia's budget saw the government continue to make minor tweaks to tax and spending, even as the data show that fiscal consolidation is slowing down. 
The proposed tax-raising measures are too narrowly targeted, limiting their scope to expanding the tax base and raising substantial revenues. 
Without more decisive action, the government risks missing its deficit and debt targets, which it set under the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. 


Malaysia Economics - Is 2025 Budget's Gradualism Good Enough?