External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

<ul><li>We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.</li><li>We expect HE’s 2Q24 earnings to improve +25% qoq, driving a potential beat for ASII’s 1H24 consolidated earnings.</li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rp 5,100; 2H24E 4W sales will be a critical driver for ASII’s 2H24 earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.We expect HE’s 2Q24 earnings to improve +25% qoq, driving a potential beat for ASII’s 1H24 consolidated earnings.We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rp 5,100; 2H24E 4W sales will be a critical driver for ASII’s 2H24 earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Possible Earnings Beat, Driven by Strong Financials and Qoq HE Improvement

PT Gudang Garam Tbk manufactures and distributes cigarettes and operates activities related to the cigarette industry. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the paper-related activities.

<ul><li>GGRM’s 6-8% price adjustment YTD may support FY24F margins, but we expect volume may continue to be under pressure.</li><li>We trim our FY24-25F NP by 42-47% due to lower volume assumptions (-8/-13% yoy from -5/0% prev.) and yoy margin pressure.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp17,500 as we see less rosy NP outlook.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GGRM’s 6-8% price adjustment YTD may support FY24F margins, but we expect volume may continue to be under pressure.We trim our FY24-25F NP by 42-47% due to lower volume assumptions (-8/-13% yoy from -5/0% prev.) and yoy margin pressure.We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp17,500 as we see less rosy NP outlook.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gudang Garam - A Still Challenging Outlook Limits Re-Rating Potential

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

<ul><li>HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).</li><li>We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTU</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTUContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP.IJ Rp 705; HOLD; TP Rp 730) Regulatory Uncertainty Loom over HMSP

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

<ul><li>We expect MEDC to book inline 2Q24 earnings, backed by AMMN’s rising contribution on the back of higher volume and ASP.</li><li>2H24 outlook: Lower production from maintenance, potentially offset by AMMN.</li><li>We resume coverage with a Buy rating but with a lower SOTP-based TP of Rp1,700 (Rp1,950 prev.), reflecting our lower FY24-25E earnings est.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect MEDC to book inline 2Q24 earnings, backed by AMMN’s rising contribution on the back of higher volume and ASP.2H24 outlook: Lower production from maintenance, potentially offset by AMMN.We resume coverage with a Buy rating but with a lower SOTP-based TP of Rp1,700 (Rp1,950 prev.), reflecting our lower FY24-25E earnings est.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Medco Energi International - Expect 2Q24 Earnings Support from AMMN Amidst Flattish Oil Price

PT Ciputra Development Tbk develops and sells real estate including office spaces, shopping centers, and related facilities as well as industrial estates. The Company also designs, develops, and maintains housing facilities including golf courses, clubs, restaurants, recreational places, and related facilities.

<ul><li>CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.</li><li>VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Landed-Residential to Remain a Key Pillar for 2H24 Marketing Sales