Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed's rate cut fueling market uncertainty.</li>
<li>Asia's mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines' cuts worsened currency pressures.</li>
<li>China's retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.</li>
</ul>


US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed's rate cut fueling market uncertainty.
Asia's mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines' cuts worsened currency pressures.
China's retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 20 Dec 2024

<div><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="37df0dae-7613-46e6-b681-df95fab6943a" data-message-model-slug="gpt-4o"><div><div><ul><li>US Inflation Debate: Mixed CPI trends suggest interest rate cuts are market-driven, with asset price inflation overlooked.</li><li>Japan's Economic Struggles: Soft GDP growth and rising wage costs raise doubts over premature interest rate hikes.</li><li>China and Philippines Outlook: China favors sustainable growth, while the Philippines faces deepening trade deficits and an overvalued peso.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

US Inflation Debate: Mixed CPI trends suggest interest rate cuts are market-driven, with asset price inflation overlooked.Japan's Economic Struggles: Soft GDP growth and rising wage costs raise doubts over premature interest rate hikes.China and Philippines Outlook: China favors sustainable growth, while the Philippines faces deepening trade deficits and an overvalued peso.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 13 Dec 2024

<ul>
<li>US Focus Shift: Trump’s reelection likely prioritizes domestic issues over international tensions, with potential prolonged high US interest rates impacting global economies.</li>
<li>Asia’s Resilience: China stabilizes growth, India continues its upward cycle, and regional PMI figures reflect steady economic activity despite global uncertainties.</li>
<li>Global Divide: Asia holds steady, while US manufacturing contracts and Europe faces deepening recession, highlighting stark contrasts in economic performance.</li>
</ul>


US Focus Shift: Trump’s reelection likely prioritizes domestic issues over international tensions, with potential prolonged high US interest rates impacting global economies.
Asia’s Resilience: China stabilizes growth, India continues its upward cycle, and regional PMI figures reflect steady economic activity despite global uncertainties.
Global Divide: Asia holds steady, while US manufacturing contracts and Europe faces deepening recession, highlighting stark contrasts in economic performance.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 6 Dec 2024

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<p>Korea’s Economic Struggles: Bank of Korea delivered a modest 25 basis point rate cut amid weak GDP growth, falling consumer prices, and high household and corporate debt.</p>
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<p>Economic Indicators: Korea's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.2%, significantly below the pre-COVID average of 2.9%.</p>
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<p>Rate Cut Outlook: Additional rate cuts are anticipated in early 2025, aiming to drive an investment-led recovery and address economic challenges.</p>
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Korea’s Economic Struggles: Bank of Korea delivered a modest 25 basis point rate cut amid weak GDP growth, falling consumer prices, and high household and corporate debt.


Economic Indicators: Korea's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.2%, significantly below the pre-COVID average of 2.9%.


Rate Cut Outlook: Additional rate cuts are anticipated in early 2025, aiming to drive an investment-led recovery and address economic challenges.







Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 29 Nov 2024

<ul>
<li>The investment side in Malaysia over the post COVID years has really taken off.</li>
<li>In Thailand, private investment contracted (-1.4%), reflecting political and economic challenges driving offshore investments.</li>
<li>Bangkok has seen little progress in mobility since the mid-1990s.</li>
</ul>


The investment side in Malaysia over the post COVID years has really taken off.
In Thailand, private investment contracted (-1.4%), reflecting political and economic challenges driving offshore investments.
Bangkok has seen little progress in mobility since the mid-1990s.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 22 Nov 2024