Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Japanese Yen: The yen has significantly weakened, leading the US to label Japan as a potential currency manipulator; interest rate differentials and potential sales of US Treasuries are key factors.</li><li>Singapore Inflation: Inflation remains high at 3.1%, with historical parallels suggesting potential appreciation of the Singapore dollar by 4-5% if inflation doesn't fall below 2%.</li><li>US Economic Indicators: Despite perceptions of a strong economy, recent US activity indicators, including manufacturing and services, show persistent weaknesses.</li></ul>

Japanese Yen: The yen has significantly weakened, leading the US to label Japan as a potential currency manipulator; interest rate differentials and potential sales of US Treasuries are key factors.Singapore Inflation: Inflation remains high at 3.1%, with historical parallels suggesting potential appreciation of the Singapore dollar by 4-5% if inflation doesn't fall below 2%.US Economic Indicators: Despite perceptions of a strong economy, recent US activity indicators, including manufacturing and services, show persistent weaknesses.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 28 Jun 2024

<ul><li>China's Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.</li><li><p>Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.</p></li><li><p>Japan's Economic Struggles: Japan's export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.</p></li></ul>

China's Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.Japan's Economic Struggles: Japan's export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 21 Jun 2024

<ul>
<li>US CPI and Fed: US CPI at 0, potential Fed rate cuts speculated, cautious outlook from Fed.</li>
<li>China Optimism: "Age of Plenty" report shows optimism due to exports, tech, infrastructure.</li>
<li>Global Confidence: China improves, Thailand face declines and political challenges; Japan struggles despite stimulus.</li>
</ul>


US CPI and Fed: US CPI at 0, potential Fed rate cuts speculated, cautious outlook from Fed.
China Optimism: "Age of Plenty" report shows optimism due to exports, tech, infrastructure.
Global Confidence: China improves, Thailand face declines and political challenges; Japan struggles despite stimulus.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 14 Jun 2024

<ul>
<li>Asian PMIs and US Economic Concerns: India leads the region with a strong PMI of 57, while Hong Kong reports a decline. The US PMI is troubling, with new orders dropping significantly, reflected in declining demand in the trucking industry.</li>
<li>Indian General Election Results: The BJP performed weaker than expected, contrary to exit polls but despite that the National Democratic Alliance retained power with Modi as Prime Minister. Economic activities and projects remain strong, indicating positive economic growth momentum.</li>
<li>Economic Outlook and Upcoming Reports: India's GDP growth remains robust. An upcoming China report aims to provide new insights, challenging perceptions formed by mainstream Western media.</li>
</ul>


Asian PMIs and US Economic Concerns: India leads the region with a strong PMI of 57, while Hong Kong reports a decline. The US PMI is troubling, with new orders dropping significantly, reflected in declining demand in the trucking industry.
Indian General Election Results: The BJP performed weaker than expected, contrary to exit polls but despite that the National Democratic Alliance retained power with Modi as Prime Minister. Economic activities and projects remain strong, indicating positive economic growth momentum.
Economic Outlook and Upcoming Reports: India's GDP growth remains robust. An upcoming China report aims to provide new insights, challenging perceptions formed by mainstream Western media.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 7 Jun 2024

<ul><li>Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto's impact on the economy is uncertain, with a need for increased foreign direct investment and improved economic strategies.</li><li>China's steady economic recovery features strong exports and government efforts to stabilize the property market, with a growing demand for wealth management products and longer-term bonds.</li><li>The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates throughout 2024 due to strong employment and high inflation, contrasting with more favorable borrowing conditions in China.</li></ul>

Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto's impact on the economy is uncertain, with a need for increased foreign direct investment and improved economic strategies.China's steady economic recovery features strong exports and government efforts to stabilize the property market, with a growing demand for wealth management products and longer-term bonds.The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates throughout 2024 due to strong employment and high inflation, contrasting with more favorable borrowing conditions in China.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 24 May 2024