Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The U.S. released revised non-farm payroll figures, with significant job cuts expected, but the fiscal deficit continues to grow, raising concerns about economic stability.</li>
<li>Frequent data revisions and premature releases, such as those in Japan and India, highlight the need for more accurate and delayed economic data reporting.</li>
<li>Political unrest in Indonesia as the government attempts to overturn a court ruling to allow President Jokowi’s son to run for governorship, reflecting a trend towards autocracy in the region.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. released revised non-farm payroll figures, with significant job cuts expected, but the fiscal deficit continues to grow, raising concerns about economic stability.
Frequent data revisions and premature releases, such as those in Japan and India, highlight the need for more accurate and delayed economic data reporting.
Political unrest in Indonesia as the government attempts to overturn a court ruling to allow President Jokowi’s son to run for governorship, reflecting a trend towards autocracy in the region.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 23 Aug 2024

<ul><li>Japan's Q2 economic rebound may be misleading due to annualized reporting; future slowdown is a concern.</li><li>Political instability in Japan and Thailand, with both countries' leaders stepping down amid economic challenges.</li><li>We maintain a cautious market outlook, especially on Thailand's struggling economy and currency.</li></ul>

Japan's Q2 economic rebound may be misleading due to annualized reporting; future slowdown is a concern.Political instability in Japan and Thailand, with both countries' leaders stepping down amid economic challenges.We maintain a cautious market outlook, especially on Thailand's struggling economy and currency.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 16 Aug 2024

<div><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="3a47726b-af7e-42ff-a6eb-a27a728eb9c2"><div><div><ul><li>Japan's market is driven by currency fluctuations, posing investment risks.</li><li>US export controls hurt American companies while strengthening China's domestic supply chains.</li><li>Asian economies show slight decline, with some PMIs dipping below 50.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Japan's market is driven by currency fluctuations, posing investment risks.US export controls hurt American companies while strengthening China's domestic supply chains.Asian economies show slight decline, with some PMIs dipping below 50.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 9 Aug 2024

<ul><li>Japanese Market: Yen strengthens, impacting stocks like Nissan with poor earnings due to weak overseas profit translation.</li><li><p>US Market: Weakening labor signals suggest possible September interest rate cuts; current economic policies may be behind the curve.</p></li><li><p>Global Economy: China boosts demand, India maintains fiscal policy, Korea's GDP growth and investment stagnate.</p></li></ul>

Japanese Market: Yen strengthens, impacting stocks like Nissan with poor earnings due to weak overseas profit translation.US Market: Weakening labor signals suggest possible September interest rate cuts; current economic policies may be behind the curve.Global Economy: China boosts demand, India maintains fiscal policy, Korea's GDP growth and investment stagnate.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 26 Jul 2024

<ul><li>Japanese Yen: The yen has significantly weakened, leading the US to label Japan as a potential currency manipulator; interest rate differentials and potential sales of US Treasuries are key factors.</li><li>Singapore Inflation: Inflation remains high at 3.1%, with historical parallels suggesting potential appreciation of the Singapore dollar by 4-5% if inflation doesn't fall below 2%.</li><li>US Economic Indicators: Despite perceptions of a strong economy, recent US activity indicators, including manufacturing and services, show persistent weaknesses.</li></ul>

Japanese Yen: The yen has significantly weakened, leading the US to label Japan as a potential currency manipulator; interest rate differentials and potential sales of US Treasuries are key factors.Singapore Inflation: Inflation remains high at 3.1%, with historical parallels suggesting potential appreciation of the Singapore dollar by 4-5% if inflation doesn't fall below 2%.US Economic Indicators: Despite perceptions of a strong economy, recent US activity indicators, including manufacturing and services, show persistent weaknesses.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 28 Jun 2024